Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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691 FXUS64 KMEG 261455 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 955 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 955 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South are in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Recent regional radar imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Mid-South at this hour. One of these storms in particular has prompted the issuance of a couple special weather statements and a severe thunderstorm warning. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase later today as a line of storms to our west moves through the Mid-South. The primary hazards are expected to be damaging winds with thunderstorm activity todayand large hail. Flash flooding may also be a concern, especially in situations where rainfall continues to fall over the same area. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive weather information today, and be on the lookout for possible watches, warnings, and advisories. JPR && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region today with a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the mix. By tomorrow, slightly cooler temperatures and dry conditions return before warming back up Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A weak frontal boundary is currently pushing through the area, leading to early morning showers and thunderstorms for locations generally north of I-40. Have already had a few storms take advantage of the current environment, with a couple of strong storms with a lot of lightning and some gusty winds. Surface boundary has pushed out ahead of the convection at the current time, so do expect coverage to stall and diminish a bit over the next few hours. Looking to our northwest across Missouri, yet another MCS is trekking our direction and will likely move into a primed environment. Some strong to severe thunderstorms development could occur based on latest model soundings, with most showing this line entering the far NW portions of the area by late morning and continue into the afternoon. CAMs do seem to be having some issues resolving the eastward extent of the MCS, so will need to keep an eye on things as it moves towards the area to see its eventual orientation. Nonetheless, damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, but some hail cannot necessarily be ruled out either. PWAT values remain a bit high, so some isolated flooding in flood prone areas during heavy downpours or if storms are slow moving could occur. Could see some post frontal activity behind the initial wave, but everything should exit the area by the late evening. Upper-level ridge will begin to build into the region into Thursday, aiding in drying out the area through at least Friday. Luckily, N/NE flow on Thursday will aid in knocking our temps back a few degrees, with highs likely remaining in the 80s to near 90. This will be short lived as surface winds will quickly return to southerly on Friday, leading to temps climbing back into the 90s and dew point temps into the mid 70s. Will have to keep an eye on the MS Delta for heat headlines Friday, but widespread heat headlines look increasingly likely for Saturday. Another weak frontal boundary will move through late Saturday into Sunday, bringing along some showers and thunderstorms and knocking our temps back a few degrees once again. As is our summertime song and dance though, this will be short-lived as temps soar by the middle of next week as a potent surface high pressure looks increasingly likely. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 An active TAF period lies ahead as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. A more defined line of storms will move into the Mid-South this afternoon, resulting in MVFR CIGs at all sites. Precipitation will wane into the evening hours with winds becoming northerly overnight. In addition, guidance continues to support development of IFR CIGs at MKL and TUP by 03Z, lasting through the end of the period. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...ANS