Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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966 FXUS64 KMEG 110735 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 235 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Dry and warm conditions are expected through the end of the work week. This weekend looks to heat up in the mid to upper 90s with triple digit heat indices. Rain chances will increase early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 One more day of below normal temperatures is on tap today as northeasterly flow continues on the south side of a 1018 mb surface high centered over the MO/IL/KY tri-point. Expect afternoon highs hovering in the low 80s today; quite pleasant by June standards in the Mid-South. The aforementioned surface high looks to shift over the Lower MS River Valley over the course of the next few days, which will gradually increase temperatures and humidity through the end of the work week. We should tip the scales into the low 90s by Friday. Moving into the weekend, strong midlevel ridging looks to set up over the southeast CONUS. This will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the mid 90s and maybe even upper 90s by Sunday. In addition, a surface boundary will act as a moisture trap for much of the Deep South this weekend, keeping the cooler, drier air just to the north across the Upper MS River Valley. NBM probabilities of temperatures > 90 degrees are maxed out everywhere on Sunday afternoon with even a few low probability pixels of T > 100 degrees. This weekend will likely be the first instance of triple digit heat index of the year, though it`s not looking like heat headlines will be necessary quite yet. Midlevel ridging finally breaks down early next week, allowing temperatures to fall back into the low 90s. Long range models are starting to pick up on a stark plume of Gulf moisture being funneled up the Mississippi River Valley starting on Monday afternoon. This system does not look to have tropical characteristics, but it does indicate a very wet start to next week for the central Gulf Coast. PoPs are generally in the 30-40% range Monday and Tuesday to account for model discrepancy, but expect shower and thunderstorm activity to be on the rise early next week. CAD && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Reduced visibilities at MKL remain the main aviation concern across the airspace overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...JPR