Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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112 FXUS62 KMFL 262319 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 719 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 714 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually waning with the loss of diurnal heating this evening, but some lingering activity will be possible the next couple hours, primarily along lingering outflow boundaries over the Interior and Palm Beach county. Otherwise a dry night can be expected with lows near to just above seasonal normals. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1124 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 South Florida remains embedded in a weak synoptic flow regime, characterized by a light westerly flow pattern from SFC to 500 mb. This westerly flow has favored the spawning of convection early this morning, with a disorganized cluster of pulse storms traversing the interior and already reaching the east coast as of 11 am this morning. With PW of 2.11 inches (per 12Z MFL sounding) and aforementioned lighter flow regime, localized flooding will be the primary concern/hazard today. The primary areas of focus will be where the Atlantic sea-breeze circulation intersects outflow from storms traversing the interior, as this is likely where highest low- level convergence and mesoscale forcing for ascent will be realized. With a footprint of higher rainfall over much of the east coast yesterday and continued rainfall threat today, we cannot rule out an isolated flash flooding instance. Tomorrow will feature little deviation in the overall synoptic regime, though a subtle warming aloft will result in weaker lapse rates, and perhaps a subtle downward trend in overall atmospheric moisture (PW). WSW surface/boundary layer winds will continue to favor the development of convection initially spawning over the interior, with a gradually progression towards the east coast and eventual interaction with the Atlantic sea-breeze and associated low- level convergence zones. Expect similarity high rainfall chances tomorrow, with urban flooding again being the primary concern through this period. Warm and generally seasonable temperatures can be expected through tomorrow, with maximum temperatures ranging from upper 80s/lower 90s. Overnight, mild/warm temperatures in the low to mid 70s can be expected for the interior/coasts respectively. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The synoptic pattern begins to change as we head into the weekend and upper-level ridging builds over the deep South. This will allow for winds to gradually veer from the south on Friday, then from the east-southeast starting on Sunday. Throughout this time period, mesoscale dynamics will be the primary driver of convective initiation, with near-normal PWAT values supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. With steady easterly flow at the surface, the convection regime will generally follow isolated showers or storms over the East Coast Metro in the morning, then increasing in coverage and shifting over the interior and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early evening. Localized flooding will be the main hazard to monitor given the weak flow pattern. Temperatures for the long term period will remain near to just above our seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and peak heat indices in the triple digits. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 714 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours. Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected again on Thursday with TEMPOs likely needed in future TAF issuances. Winds will trend light and variable overnight, and then generally be prevail SW-WSW 10kts or less on Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Gentle southwesterly winds will remain in place across the local waters for most of the week. Both Atlantic and Gulf waters will be generally benign, with seas no greater than 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher winds and seas each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 91 79 92 / 20 60 10 50 West Kendall 75 92 76 92 / 20 60 10 50 Opa-Locka 77 93 78 93 / 30 60 10 50 Homestead 76 91 79 91 / 20 50 10 50 Fort Lauderdale 77 91 78 90 / 40 60 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 77 91 79 91 / 40 60 20 50 Pembroke Pines 78 94 79 94 / 30 60 10 50 West Palm Beach 76 92 76 92 / 30 60 20 50 Boca Raton 76 92 77 92 / 40 60 20 50 Naples 79 90 79 92 / 10 50 10 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Carr