470
FXUS62 KMFL 280812
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
412 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 409 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

After some review of the heat concern for today, a Heat Advisory
has been issued for Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties
from 8 AM to 5 PM today. Many observation sites within this area
experienced heat index values in excess of 105 yesterday before
convection moved in and similar is expected again today. Will
allow the day shift to monitor trends in Collier County in case
the Heat Advisory requires expansion there if convection starts
later than forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Today, a typical wet season day is expected, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially over the interior and
eastern areas. The lighter synoptic flow, predominantly from the
south-southeast, will allow sea-breeze circulations to propagate
further inland. This will favor inland areas instead of the
coastline metro areas; however, there remains a possibility of a
few storms drifting eastward and impacting the east coast,
potentially causing localized flooding. Aside from the heavy
rainfall, lightning and gusty winds will be other hazards that may
accompany thunderstorms.

By Saturday, an upper-level high will shift into the Florida
Panhandle, resulting in an easterly flow within the boundary
layer. This shift will promote showers and thunderstorms along the
east coast during the morning hours, gradually propagating
towards the interior and west coast by the evening. This pattern
should favor the heaviest rainfall generally over the western half
of the region, though the east coast may receive its fair share
of rainfall at times as well.

Maximum temperatures will be seasonable and typical for this time
of year, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight low
temperatures will range from the low to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

As we round out the weekend, the synoptic pattern will continue
to evolve, as the development of upper-level ridging expands over
the deep South. This ridge will cause winds to prevail from the
south overnight, then veer to the east-southeast throughout the
remainder of the weekend.

During this period, mesoscale dynamics will be crucial in
convective initiation, generally overruling synoptic forcing for
ascent (which will be meager through much of the week). Near-
normal precipitable water (PWAT) values will support the daily
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The steady
easterly surface flow will establish a typical convective pattern:
isolated showers or thunderstorms over the East Coast Metro area
in the morning, increasing in coverage and shifting towards the
interior and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early
evening. Localized flooding remains a primary concern due to the
weak flow pattern.

In the long term, temperatures are expected to remain near or
slightly above seasonal averages. Highs will range from the upper
80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices reaching into the triple
digits. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR through the morning before the return of showers and storms by
the afternoon hours as sea breezes develop and advance inland.
Convection and wind speeds should diminish in the evening. Short-
fused AMDs will likely be needed for sub-VFR impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will gradually turn out of the
east/southeast over the weekend. Both Atlantic and Gulf waters
will be generally benign, with seas no greater than 1 to 2 feet.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher
winds and seas each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  79  91  80 /  50  20  50  30
West Kendall     94  78  92  78 /  50  20  50  30
Opa-Locka        94  79  92  79 /  50  20  50  30
Homestead        91  80  90  79 /  40  20  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  91  80  90  80 /  50  20  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  80  90  80 /  50  20  50  30
Pembroke Pines   94  81  93  81 /  50  20  50  30
West Palm Beach  93  78  91  79 /  50  20  50  30
Boca Raton       93  80  91  80 /  50  20  50  30
Naples           92  78  94  78 /  40  30  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAG
SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG