Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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747 FXUS62 KMFL 271123 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 723 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 South Florida remains nestled within a quiescent synoptic regime, with a longwave trough extending into the Gulf of Mexico and quasi-zonal flow predominantly encompassing the southern peninsula. This will maintain a westerly flow regime through much of the low to mid troposphere, which will maintain a fairly persistent and predictable convective regime. Showers and thunderstorms will initially spawn across the Gulf coast and interior region, gradually propagating eastward into an unstable airmass characterized by higher values of theta-e. Localized low- level convergent maxima ahead of the Atlantic sea breeze should allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to traverse the east coast metropolitan area. The westerly flow regime should allow for a gradual eastward propagation, however easterly boundary layer wind augmentation via the Atlantic sea-breeze may allow for storms to meander or stall - allowing for the potential for localized and urban flooding. To round out the week, an elongated ridge of high pressure will gradually expand over South Florida, causing a further weakening in the synoptic flow regime. The positioning of this feature will allow for a gradual backing of winds such that surface winds are predominately out of the south/southeast. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact much of the region once again, with localized flooding being the primary concerns for today. Overall, not much of a departure from a typical wet season day across South Florida - rinse and repeat! Maximum temperature will be seasonable and typical for this time of year, with maxes ranging from upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight low temperatures will span the low to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 As we approach the weekend, the synoptic pattern will undergo notable changes with the development of upper-level ridging over the deep South. This ridge will cause winds to prevail out of the south on Saturday, and then from the east-southeast by Sunday evening. During this period, mesoscale dynamics will play a crucial role in convective initiation. Near-normal precipitable water (PWAT) values will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. The steady easterly surface flow will lead to a typical convective pattern: isolated showers or thunderstorms over the East Coast Metro area in the morning, with increasing coverage and a shift towards the interior and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early evening. Localized flooding remains a primary concern due to the weak flow pattern. In the long term, temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above seasonal averages. Highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices reaching into the triple digits. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 SHRA/TSRA will develop across SFL and push eastward towards the east coast terminals late this morning into the early afternoon hours. Bouts of IFR/LIFR cigs/vis could be realized if SHRA/TSRA directly impacts east coast terminals. Amendments and TEMPOs will likely be needed. Light SW flow will continue across the area with a pinned Atlantic sea-breeze along the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Gentle southwesterly winds will remain in place across the local waters for most of the week. Both Atlantic and Gulf waters will be generally benign, with seas no greater than 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher winds and seas each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 78 92 79 / 60 20 50 20 West Kendall 92 76 92 77 / 60 20 50 20 Opa-Locka 93 78 93 79 / 60 20 50 20 Homestead 91 78 91 79 / 50 20 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 90 78 90 79 / 60 30 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 92 79 / 60 30 50 30 Pembroke Pines 94 79 94 80 / 60 20 50 20 West Palm Beach 92 76 92 78 / 60 30 50 20 Boca Raton 92 77 92 79 / 60 30 50 30 Naples 90 79 92 79 / 40 10 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...Hadi