Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
379 FXUS63 KMKX 150855 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday. - Hot weather is anticipated Sunday into the middle of the work week. Heat indices in the middle 90s are likely Sunday and Tuesday and heat index values in the upper 90s are likely on Monday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Today and Tonight: High pressure over Ontario will bring light southeast winds. Cirrus associated with convection over the plains will continue to spread into southern Wisconsin. Showers over Minnesota and Iowa associated with a weak shortwave within mid level ridging should dissipate as they move into southern Wisconsin an encounter drier air. There is a 20% chance for thunderstorms this evening north and west of Madison as a deeper shortwave approaches the region. Storm chances expand across southern Wisconsin overnight as the shortwave moves through and increase to over 75% north and west of Madison. Areas south and east of Madison may stay dry. A 40 knot low level jet will shift into western Wisconsin during this time bringing a surge of moisture. Some storms may be on the strong side as instability builds to 1500 MU CAPE early Sunday morning with 20 to 30 knots of shear. Marquardt && .LONG TERM... Issued 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Sunday through Tuesday Some showers may linger into Sunday morning before ridging builds back in. Can`t rule out a thunderstorm during the afternoon, which the HRRR shows, but we are capped around 850 mb. Much warmer and more humid temperatures are expected for the early part of next week. A strong mid level ridge sets up over the southeast U.S. bringing as low pressure develops over the central plains. This brings strong and moist southerly flow into the region. Highs will be around 90 with heat index values in the 90s. Some areas may see values near 100 on Monday. There is a 30% chance of storms on Monday and Tuesday. Many areas will be dry. The better chances will be to our northwest where a strong low level jet surges into a frontal boundary draped across Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. Wednesday through Friday Warm temperatures will continue but likely will not be as warm as earlier in the week. The frontal boundary will push southward through the state sometime early in the period bringing a better chance for rain and thunderstorms. Marquardt && .AVIATION... Issued 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some scattered clouds around 2000 ft may develop this afternoon. There is a chance of thunderstorms after 5Z / midnight. South winds will increase overnight with gusts around 25 knots. Marquardt && .MARINE... Issued 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 South winds increase on Sunday with building waves. The northern half of the open waters will see some gusts around 30 knots. Issued a small craft advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 pm Sunday. Strongest winds will be during the day, then waves will linger into the evening. Fog may develop for Sunday night and Monday and may linger through the early part of the week with the humid air mass over the lake. South winds will increase again Monday night through Tuesday night. Gusts in the open waters may reach 30 knots. Marquardt && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee