055
FXUS62 KMLB 280450
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1250 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

IMPACT:
- Numerous afternoon/evening storms expected beyond 28/18Z.
  Restrictions to IFR, gusts to 35 KT possible.

Quiet weather is forecast through the overnight. A few showers
may impact LEE as early as 13Z. Sea breeze looks to penetrate a
bit farther inland this afternoon, sparking 60-70% storm coverage
from mid-afternoon through early evening. Storms will likely
affect the Greater Orlando area terminals and DAB first before
drifting/developing toward MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA from 19Z-29/00Z.
Prevailing VFR outside of storms, with SW winds 5-12 KT becoming
ESE in the afternoon at the coastal terminals. TSRA TEMPOs were
required at all local area TAF sites.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Current-Rest of Tonight...A rather active pattern this afternoon
brought numerous strong thunderstorms with a few severe warned cells
to east central FL. Driven by multiple boundary and sea breeze
collisions, storm motion was erratic but generally moved from the
west to the east. Highest observed winds were recorded at Cape
Canaveral above 50 mph, with another complex of boundaries colliding
near the site of the KMLB radar this afternoon. This prompted a
brief funnel cloud to develop and unconfirmed tornado (as of 9pm),
with multiple reports of damage shared from nearby neighborhoods in
Melbourne. The collision has continued southward along the
intracoastal waters this evening, arriving to the Treasure Coast
currently. While storms have lost daytime heating, a few still could
be rather strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning, with the
continued potential of a brief spin up as activity moves offshore.
Storms will dissipate by midnight, with quiet conditions forecast
overnight. Lows will fall to the mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain across the Florida
Straits into tonight. SW flow has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind
the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight, with speeds
generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore
waters and 2-3 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered showers and
lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the
overnight, especially in the offshore waters.

Friday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis begins
to shift back northward, but remains south of the waters on Friday
before moving back northward into the coastal waters this weekend
through early next week. Boating conditions remain favorable as wind
speeds continue around 5-10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon
as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up
to 3 feet offshore at times. Scattered offshore moving storms will
continue to be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  92  76 /  60  30  60  40
MCO  93  77  92  76 /  60  20  60  30
MLB  92  77  90  76 /  50  40  50  40
VRB  93  75  91  75 /  50  30  50  30
LEE  93  78  93  78 /  60  20  60  40
SFB  93  77  93  76 /  60  30  60  40
ORL  93  78  92  77 /  60  20  60  40
FPR  93  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil