Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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167 FXUS62 KMLB 260137 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 937 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Forecast held up very well this afternoon and evening, with no significant changes needed. Storms stayed west enough of Kennedy Space Center for the GOES-U rocket launch to sneak out just before anvil moved in aloft. Slow moving and stationary storms produced widespread rainfall amounts 1-2" and locally high amounts 3-5" along a fairly contiguous band from Harmony to Orange City, the latter of which also saw the strongest storm of the day that briefly produced nickel sized hail. Locally high rainfall amounts up to 3" were also seen from near Kenansville to near Country Hill Estates. A couple stubborn storms near Leesburg and area of debris showers linger on early tonight, but should all dissipate by midnight. A quiet rest of the night is forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 833 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions prevail outside of convection. TS INVOF most inland terminals this evening on a downward trend and should dissipate by around 02Z. Debris -SH could linger a few hours later, especially KTIX-KSUA, but should remain VFR and don`t even have VCSH mentioned in some cases. Generally quiet overnight. Little bit of uncertainty how the sea breezes and TS will evolve Wednesday. Light westerly flow will push the WCSB quickly across the peninsula while holding the ECSB near the I-95 corridor. How much TS develops along the WCSB in the late morning-afternoon will have a significant impact on timing of TS at the inland terminals, which could be as early 17Z. Less TS on the WCSB would keep timing closer to the currently advertised 19Z VCTS. TS develops on the ECSB INVOF the coastal terminals around 18Z, eventually getting overrun by inland storms with all this activity pushing offshore in the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will continue to shift slightly south and eastward. SW flow today has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight. Wind speeds will remain light, with 10 KT or less. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore waters. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Wednesday-Sunday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Light offshore flow shifts SE/S each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Background flow then becomes southerly on Saturday and Sunday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze in the afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally 10 KT or less, increasing slightly on Sunday with speeds around 10 KT. Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft across the far offshore waters. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast each afternoon and early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 75 94 / 30 70 40 60 MCO 75 93 77 93 / 50 70 30 60 MLB 75 92 75 93 / 30 70 40 60 VRB 74 91 74 93 / 40 70 40 60 LEE 76 93 77 93 / 40 70 30 60 SFB 76 93 76 94 / 50 70 30 60 ORL 76 93 77 94 / 50 70 30 60 FPR 74 91 74 93 / 40 70 30 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Haley