546
FXUS64 KMOB 280932
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
432 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

An active convective pattern continues through the near term
period as an upper-level trough lingers overhead. Throughout the
day today, this trough will break away from the jet stream
(located well to our north) and will evolve into an elongated, yet
weak upper low/inverted trough axis which will remain overhead
through Saturday. By the tail end of the period, this feature will
dissipate as an upper ridge over the south central US expands
eastward, placing the local region under the eastern periphery of
this ridge. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary located across
portions of southern Mississippi/Alabama is expected to dissipate
throughout the day today, allowing for the typical summertime
land/sea breeze circulation to develop and become the dominant
surface feature through the period. With PWATs exceeding 2 inches
across the entire area, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop both days. Convection will
start by developing over coastal counties and marine zones during
the morning hours. By the afternoon, this activity will spread
inland as the sea breeze pushes northward and interacts with
outflow boundaries. Activity will gradually wane during the
evening hours thanks to the loss of daytime heating. As is the
case with typical summertime convection, although severe storms
are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger storms
that manage to develop. Additionally, the combination of very
strong low-level CAPE values and surface vorticity can be
conducive for the development of waterspouts over our marine
zones, or possibly a very brief landspout over coastal counties.

Highs for both today and tomorrow will top out in the low 90s. We
should stay just below Heat Advisory criteria, although heat indices
will likely climb into the 102 to 107 degree range for both days
thanks to dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight will
remain very mild, with temperatures only dropping into the mid 70s
inland and the upper 70s to around 80 degrees closer to the coast. A
Moderate Risk of rip currents will remain in place through tonight
due to an elevated southwesterly flow over the Gulf, leading to
increased surf heights. With winds decreasing for Saturday, the rip
current risk drops to a Low risk. /96


&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Upper high pressure will be ridging into our area from the west
into the early part of next week. The upper high pressure will
drift east by late in the period, being centered MS/AL. With the
center of the upper ridge situated to our west over the ArkLaTex
region through the weekend, a rather deep northerly flow pattern
will persists over our region with some weak shortwave energy
likely rounding the eastern periphery of the upper high. This
upper energy, combined with a dissipating weak surface frontal
boundary over the interior southeast CONUS, along with daytime
heating and instability, will allow for scattered to locally
numerous showers and storms each day, mainly in the afternoon and
evening hours. During the early to middle part of next week,
surface high pressure will be ridging in from the east,
maintaining the moist low level airmass across the region. This
will help maintain a chance for scattered showers and storms each
day into the early to middle part of next week, but with the upper
ridge building coverages will be a little less than in the first
part of the period. Daytime highs through Sunday will primarily be
in the low to mid 90s, with afternoon heat indices in the 100-105
degree range. Monday and especially into Tuesday and Wednesday,
daytime highs increase into the middle 90s for most locations,
with heat indices likely above 108 degrees in many areas. With
this, we will potentially be looking at another round of Heat
Advisories for at least portions of our area by Monday and then
into Wednesday of next week. Nighttime lows will continue to be
mainly in the low to mid 70s through the period for most
locations, but upper 70s along the immediate coast. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A moderate westerly to southwesterly flow is expected to
continue through tonight, with winds decreasing by Saturday. For
Saturday night and into early next week, a light diurnal flow
pattern develops, with westerly to northwesterly flow developing
each night and a southwesterly flow developing each afternoon. By
Tuesday, a light southerly to southeasterly flow becomes
established. Showers and storms are expected to continue developing
each morning. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds
and waterspouts. /96


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  76  91  76  94  75  94  75 /  60  50  70  20  70  40  50  30
Pensacola   90  79  91  79  93  78  92  79 /  60  50  60  30  70  50  70  40
Destin      88  80  89  80  91  79  91  80 /  60  40  60  30  70  50  70  40
Evergreen   93  74  92  74  93  73  95  73 /  70  30  70  20  70  30  50  20
Waynesboro  93  74  93  73  94  73  95  72 /  60  40  60  20  70  20  40  10
Camden      92  74  92  73  92  73  94  72 /  60  30  70  20  70  20  40  10
Crestview   92  75  93  74  94  74  96  74 /  60  50  60  20  70  40  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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