446
FNUS74 KMOB 101802
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Graham Creek Nature Preserve...Alabama Forestry Commission
National Weather Service Mobile AL
102 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 CDT on June 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and storms are possible throughout the
afternoon hours and we may see an increase in storms late this afternoon
near the burn site as a cold front clashes with the sea breeze. Gusty,
erratic winds can be expected with storms today. Rain chances are near
zero at the burn site tomorrow. Minimum relative humidity remains well
above critical thresholds. Transport winds remain west to west-northwest
this afternoon and turn northerly tomorrow. Afternoon dispersion is fair
today and tomorrow.

Fog potential and other remarks...Fog is not expected.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-975 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.West 4 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....12 increasing to 32.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  0   14  15  15  26  51  51  52  53  53  60
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............76  78  83  85  88  88  89  90  90  90  89  88
RH..............93  93  85  76  68  66  66  64  64  64  66  68
20 FT wind dir..N   WNW W   WNW W   W   W   W   WSW WSW WSW WSW
20 FT wind spd..0   1   8   6   6   7   8   8   9   10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.9   10  14  14  10  9   13  13  14  15  16  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.0 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.2
Mix hgt (km)....0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   WNW WNW WNW WNW W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  10  13  13  12  10  9   9   9   10  13  12
Trans spd (m/s).5   4   6   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   6   5
Dispersion idx..12  25  30  33  34  35  36  35  34  32  28  28
LVORI...........6   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms through the night.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1900, then 2 until 2300, then 3 until
                    0200, then 2 until 0400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-671 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 12 mph shifting to the north 7 to 8
                    mph after 3 am.
Transport winds m/s.West around 5 meters/second shifting to the
                    north 3 to 4 meters/second after 3 am.
Dispersion index....28 decreasing to 7.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........67  67  60  59  61  57  58  57  57  47  58  61
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).50  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  20  20  10  10
LAL.............3   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2   1   1
Temp............86  85  81  79  78  78  77  76  76  74  73  73
RH..............70  72  82  88  91  88  87  90  90  93  93  90
20 FT wind dir..W   WSW W   W   WNW NNW NW  NNW NNW N   N   NNE
20 FT wind spd..7   3   2   2   2   2   1   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.12  8   7   7   6   6   7   6   7   7   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mix hgt (km)....0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   WNW WNW NW  NW  NNW N   NNE NNE NNE
Transp wind spd.12  12  10  7   7   6   7   7   8   7   7   8
Trans spd (m/s).5   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   4   3   3   4
Dispersion idx..28  9   7   7   6   5   5   5   5   6   7   7
LVORI...........3   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4

$$
Forecaster...7
Requested by...Richard Fields
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415900.0/MOB
.DELDT 06/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL richard.fields@forestry.alabama.gov