Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
229 AWUS01 KWNH 172306 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-180500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1031 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 706 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 172302Z - 180500Z SUMMARY...Heavy rain will continue to drift northwest from the northern Outer Banks into or through the Hampton Roads metro area this evening. Considerable flash flooding is possible given the high rainfall rates and particularly slow motion. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to redevelop north of a warm front extending east near the Albemarle Sound in northeast NC. This has resulted in considerable flash flooding in the northern outer banks with 5-8" estimated from KAKQ between Duck and Corolla today. Rainfall rates of 2-2.5" have been estimated from KAKQ around Corolla between 22Z and 23Z. This activity is drifting north and has a reasonable chance of continuing at a similar intensity farther north over Virginia Beach and the Hampton Roads metro area. A tropically-sourced plume of moisture, with PW of 2.1" per SPC RAP mesoanalysis is north of the warm front and shifting into the Virginia Capes on convergent low level flow. Sufficient instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) should continue to support hourly rainfall of 2-3"/hr. FFG is generally 1.5-2"/hr over Virginia Beach given the around 2" of rain that fell there earlier today. Recent HRRR runs have been too progressive with this activity shifting northeast, but the NW direction of motion ahead of the warm front that is slowly drifting north is reasonable. Given the potential for these heavy rates to cross the vulnerable Hampton Roads metro area, the flash flood threat is considered likely for this evening. Jackson ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37387681 37387625 37257574 36587560 35807538 36257625 36597675 37037716