Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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015 FXUS63 KMPX 280430 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1130 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next round of active weather arrives late this evening and continues into Friday. Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather across southern Minnesota Friday, where scattered strong to severe storms are possible. - Quiet weekend weather on tap, followed by the next weather system capable of producing heavy rain and possible severe storms Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Rain showers have moved into the southern half of MN early this afternoon and will continue pushing east into this evening. Despite the large layer of dry air in the 12Z MPX RAOB, the precip has maintained its strength and should result in a tenth or two of accumulation. Additionally, redevelopment of showers and possible thunderstorms looks likely tonight across MN as an upper-level trough and low-level WAA impinge on the region. Currently, central to northern MN is most favored where forcing will be greatest but precip could expand all of the way down into northern IA. This activity will slowly push east, exiting our WI counties by early Friday afternoon. 0.5-1" of rain is possible for the northern half of MN while amounts will decrease southward. During Friday, clouds will be slow to break apart following the precip but highs should still be warm across MN with mid to upper 70s. There is also a possibility of a 2nd round of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, mainly across southern MN, if enough daytime heating occur to cause instability within the near 70 dewpoints. There is a chance for one or two of the storms to become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. A cold front will push through Friday night into Saturday morning, largely ending precip chances for the weekend and bringing in a milder, more comfortable air mass. Thus, this looks like a great weekend for outdoor activities as highs are forecast in the upper 60s to mid 70s with abundant sun. Perhaps a few rain showers could exist across our WI counties underneath the upper- level cyclonic flow Saturday but a washout is not expected. However, precip chances do return Monday through at least Tuesday as another trough within the progressive, wavy pattern arrives into the Northern Plains. This trough will be rather slow moving, keeping rain chances into Tuesday night. Once this trough passes east, theoretically another break in the precip would seem likely. However, long-range model solutions begin to diverge in their evolution of the upper-level pattern past next Wednesday. EPS, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble QPF guidance does favor 1" to possibly up to 2" for portions of the MPX CWA throughout next week. Thus, it seems like a low possibility that we experience any lengthy dry periods or drying out of soil moisture. On the other hand, for at least the next 2 weeks, temperatures are favored to stay closer to normal for early July (highs generally in the the upper 70s to lower 80s). Thus, at least we won`t have to deal with any stifling hot, muggy weather for the time being. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A broad area of light rain extended from far western WI across much of MN, though there were some breaks, primarily in portions of central and southwest MN. More showers, however, continue developing in western MN. There have also been some thunderstorms northwest of Alexandria and in the southwest near Worthington. As the low level jet strengthens, most areas will be susceptible to thunder for two or three hours early Friday morning. The other concern is MVFR/IFR ceilings. As of 03Z, MVFR is spotty across the region, but models remain consistent with developing widespread MVFR after 10Z Friday. Given the low level moisture in the wake of the rain, MVFR makes sense and it is certainly plausible for IFR to occur. KMSP...the two main concerns are the potential for south winds to gust above 30 knots Friday morning during the time when MVFR ceilings are likely and IFR ceilings are possible. As for a thunderstorm chance Friday afternoon, it appears that low clouds lingering well into the afternoon will reduce that threat, though it will not be impossible for storms Friday afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind N bcmg E 5-10 kts. MON...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind SE 10-15G25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...TDK