Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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495 FXUS63 KMQT 131955 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 355 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and storms possible over the west this evening. - Dry Friday and early Saturday before the return of showers and thunderstorms later in the weekend. - Warmer than normal temperatures frequent the forecast, with some areas approaching 90 for highs by next week, especially Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 With a line of showers and storms having exited our region this afternoon, expect the rest of today to go fairly pleasantly, with mostly sunny skies being seen across the western 2/3rds of the area as seen on GOES-16 imagery. With the cold front moving in this evening, we could see a few more showers and possibly some thunderstorms develop over the western U.P. this evening. However, with high pressure building in, expect the rainfall to be done by midnight local time. With mostly clear skies expected tonight, expect lows to plummet into the 40s in the interior areas. We may see some upslope fog/low-level stratus over the Keweenaw late tonight. However, the uncertainty in this occurring is fairly high, as the outflow of a storm over northern Lake Superior is visibly moving across the rest of the lake, possibly inducing mixing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The active weather pattern across the CONUS continues through the long-term forecast. The main features of note at 500mb are ridging over the Plains and cutoff low troughs over the Pacific NW and the Four Corners region. Despite high pressure to end the work week and begin the weekend, the overall weather pattern through the long term is wetter than normal and warmer than normal, with some of the hottest temperatures of the year thus far forecast for the beginning of next week. Dry weather will be over the UP through at least Saturday morning as ridging aloft builds in and supports a near-1020mb high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes. Friday will be a slightly cooler day with highs only in the 60s to low 70s, but highs recover to the mid 70s for Saturday. RHs look to fall into the 40s and 30s, but with very light winds, weather should be benign to end the work week and begin the weekend. Meanwhile, the pair of cutoff low troughs will advance towards the Upper Great Lakes. The GEFS shows two clusters of surface lows by Saturday afternoon, one over Saskatchewan and one around the ND/SD/WY/MT region. These lows become one north of Lake Winnipeg at around 985mb by Sunday evening. With high pressure shifting to the east from the Great Lakes to the New England Coast, predominantly southerly low level flow will allow Gulf moisture to surge north, as shown in the NAEFS vapor transport being at the 90th to 97.5th percentile of climatology along with PWATs of near 1.5 inches. Depending on the evolution and interaction of the upper troughs and resultant surface features, multiple lifting mechanisms for showers and thunderstorms will be present by Saturday evening, with PoPs spreading west to east beginning around 18Z Saturday. As the pattern is complex, details on the strength and timing of storms is tough to narrow down, so look for future forecast packages to gain clarity there, but with the available moisture to work with, ensembles do show about a 10% chance of daily precip totals to exceed an inch by Monday. This continues a downward trend in the ensemble guidance, though outdoor activities this weekend should still be generally aware of the potential for rainfall. The gradual warmup continues into next week, with high 80s for much of next week, with widespread low to mid 90s in the 50th to 75th percentile of the NBM, especially Tuesday. PoPs remain in the rest of the long term forecast as ensembles show a continued chaotic pattern through mid-June. The general pattern looks to support ridging over the eastern CONUS with a persistent surface high off the East Coast, which should help create southerly to southwesterly flow to advect further Gulf moisture north. As a result, the CPC outlooks the 8-14 day period as being more likely to be warmer than normal and wetter than normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions continue across KIWD and KSAW over the next 24 hours, while KCMX eventually has the low-level stratus leave by the mid- afternoon. We may see some upslope fog/low-level stratus return over KCMX late tonight via fog from Lake Superior. Gusty winds are expected across the TAF sites this afternoon ahead of an incoming cold front. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Thunderstorms are ongoing at 4PM EDT between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw Peninsula. These storms will continue to push ESE to SE throughout the evening, occasionally bringing lightning, strong winds, and hail. High pressure building over the Upper Great Lakes into the weekend will keep wind gusts below 20 kt Friday through Sunday morning, when a cold front will bring a return of thunderstorm chances. Southerly winds will gust to 20-25 kt before the cold front turns the winds westerly and wind gusts fall below 20 kt going into next week. Waves will largely be below 4 ft until Sunday when waves along the US/Canada border on Lake Superior will grow to 4-5 ft. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...GS AVIATION...TAP MARINE...GS