712
FXUS66 KMTR 120019
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
519 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Hot today, a weak front moves through the area tonight bringing a
slight cool off for tomorrow. Quiet through the rest of the week
with temps at or slightly above seasonal averages by the weekend.
Potential for wind and increased fire danger towards the end of
the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Current temperatures are reasonably in line with the forecast as
we get through midday. No major changes to the short term as a
weak upper level disturbance is set to flatten the ridge and
provide a bit of a cool down for Wednesday. The Heat Advisory
currently in effect for inland areas will be allowed to expire
tonight. Overall high temperatures Wednesday will be about 5-7
degrees cooler than today, mainly for inland locations. Really
nothing else to write about in the short term, as all remains
relatively quiet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Not much to write home about as we head through the latter half of
the week. Warm afternoons with temps getting down to around
seasonal averages by the weekend. The next thing in the timeline
that we are watching closely will be during the late weekend to
early next week timeframe. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a
slight pattern change with decent confidence that will bring windy
conditions to the region. It currently looks like the highest
winds will be confined to the waters and coastal areas, and some
over the higher terrain. With this pattern, it appears the winds
would be more northwesterly, thus, holding off on any mention of
"offshore" for now as the position of the trough currently does
not support that. However, with grasses and fine fuels drying out
rapidly, it looks like the Sunday-Monday timeframe is one to
watch when it comes to elevated fire danger, particularly in the
North Bay where fine fuels are drier than elsewhere around the Bay
Area and Central Coast. For now, moisture recovery looks decent
going into the weekend as winds should remain onshore, but we are
keeping a close eye on the positioning of the trough and will
update messaging accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Currently VFR at all TAF sites. High confidence in VFR through the
TAF period at all terminals except the Monterey Bay terminals of MRY
and SNS.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. High
confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds will diminish and
transition to a southwesterly heading overnight. Winds will be gusty
out of the southwest tomorrow afternoon and evening with gusts up to
25 knots to be expected.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northerly flow at MRY
and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence in LIFR
conditions returning to both terminals overnight and clearing by
late morning for SNS and early afternoon for MRY. Winds will prevail
out of the west/southwest for MRY and out of the northwest for
SNS.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 449 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Strong northwest winds continue through Wednesday across the outer
waters with gale force gusts in the northern outer waters. Winds
diminish late Wednesday before strengthening again towards the
later  part of the week. Waves up to 13 to 15 feet are possible in
the  outer waters through the week, mainly driven by winds with a
moderate northwest swell and a low southwest swell in the
background.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ504-506-510-
     513>515-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...DialH

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