Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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165 FXUS64 KOHX 170520 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1220 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 827 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 After a hot day today, a cool and picture-perfect night is in store for Middle TN. The harvest moon is out in full force tonight and viewing conditions are excellent with little to no clouds across the area. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 50s for most. A few areas of patchy fog are possible overnight, especially near bodies of water and across our southwest counties since there`s so much moisture still around from recent rains. Tuesday looks like another warm day with a mix of clouds and sun. Highs in the mid 80s. Showers are possible across the Plateau starting late morning through the afternoon in association with a potential topical cyclone moving in from the Atlantic. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Weak ridging builds aloft causing a drier airmass to move in over Middle Tn. For some, a welcomed break from the past several days of rain, but for others, still wishing for some rain that never arrived. Partly cloudy to clear skies will be the headline with high temperatures in the upper 80s this afternoon. Much of the same on Tuesday for our western half of the CWA, but for our eastern half, increasing clouds and cooler temperatures are expected. Highs look to only reach the upper 70s across the Upper Cumberland on Tuesday! Winds will be on the lighter side, out of the north. With the dry northerly flow, RHs will be on the lower side making those high temps not feel so bad. Along with cooler temperatures on Tuesday, there will be some increased moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone Eight over the Carolinas. This will bring some chance for precipitation over the Upper Cumberland, but little accumulation is expected at this time. Latest LREF probabilities show only a 30 percent chance for Crossville to see greater than 0.10 inches of rainfall through Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 As mentioned above, the Upper Cumberland will see some precipitation chances through the mid week with the potential of TC Eight development. By Thursday into Friday, drier conditions are favored before rain chances return Sunday and into Monday. Confidence is low on this right now, but latest guidance suggest a mid-level disturbance pushing through by early next week so some showers can`t be ruled out at this time. High temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to even low 90s for Friday and into the weekend but moderate back into the mid 80s by early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions will continue for BNA/MQY/CKV. CSV/SRB will likely have MVFR and possibly IFR cigs impact the terminals Tuesday evening. In addition, light showers could impact CSV/SRB from mid morning through the evening off and on. Winds will be out of the N/NNE for the taf period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 84 65 86 65 / 10 10 0 0 Clarksville 87 61 87 63 / 10 10 0 0 Crossville 74 58 79 58 / 30 10 20 0 Columbia 85 60 86 62 / 10 10 0 0 Cookeville 75 61 80 61 / 20 10 10 0 Jamestown 72 61 78 59 / 40 10 20 0 Lawrenceburg 84 59 84 62 / 10 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 84 62 86 63 / 10 10 10 0 Waverly 87 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...Cravens LONG TERM....Cravens AVIATION.....Reagan