Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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559 FXUS66 KOTX 222254 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 354 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front on Sunday will create elevated to critical fire weather concerns over portions of central and eastern Washington with widespread breezy to windy conditions. This will likely be followed by temperatures cooling back down towards normal values by Monday. Another warm up arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday before the next weather system arrives on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Today - Temperatures have warmed in the 80s and 90s despite cloud cover associated with an incoming trough. Folks in the Methow valley have even reported some light rain. Tonight will stay relatively mild compared to lately with lows in the 50s and low 60s ahead of a dry front passage. Tomorrow - Have upgraded our fire weather watches to red flag warnings in the Columbia Basin, Spokane area, Palouse, and Snake river area for critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon thanks to a dry front passage. Did not upgrade Wenatchee area or the Waterville Plateau as modified marine layer air will likely keep them above critical thresholds. MOS/raw model guidance continues to show dry and windy conditions from Moses Lake to Spokane (sustained winds 15 to 25 mph gusting up to 40 mph; relative humidity 12 to 20%). Inversion strength at the top of the boundary layer will be crucial for how warm and dry we get tomorrow. Temperature spread is very large between models but windy conditions usually means effective mixing which means warmer temperatures which also means lower relative humidity. /Butler Monday through Friday: The start of the week will bring a zonal flow pattern with an approaching Gulf of Alaska Low. The Low is expected to pass on Wednesday. It will be followed by a ridge pattern to close out the week. For Monday and Tuesday, the region can expect cooler temps, behind Sundays cold front, with highs reaching into the 70s to low 80s. These will be close to the season normals. Temperatures will rise slowly ahead of the Low. Most areas should expect highs into the 80s and low 90s by Wednesday. The highs on Wednesday could change depending on the timing of the Low as the ensembles are showing quite a spread between the runs. It will bring a cooler and wetter airmass. Highs to close out the week will be on the cooler side with highs in the 70s and low 80s. The low on Wednesday will bring a drop in temperatures but not a lot of precip chances. The best chances will mainly be over the Cascades, northern mountains, and the North Idaho Panhandle. These areas will have shower chances increase through the end of the week. There is a 10-15% chance of and isolated thunderstorm during Thursday and Friday afternoons. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00z TAFS: This evening and tonight, winds will be light at 10 knots or less under thin high clouds above 10k feet AGL. Sunday, winds will become breezy and gusty out of the southwest with a dry cold front passage. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions through 00z Monday. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 61 82 47 77 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 59 80 47 74 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 58 79 46 74 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 66 91 55 84 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 51 79 41 77 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 55 78 45 72 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 62 77 50 72 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 60 84 48 82 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 62 78 52 81 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 58 84 48 81 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). && $$