358
FXUS64 KOUN 271907
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
207 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Storms are expected to move into portions of western and northern
Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. The environment ahead of
these storms will be characterized by surface-based instability of
~2000 J/kg and weak deep-layer. Another afternoon of deep mixing
will foster downdraft CAPE of over 1000 J/kg. That being said, any
stronger storm that moves into this environment will have the
potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Storms may continue through the overnight hours across northern
Oklahoma, but are expected to weaken especially after sunset. The
main hazard will be damaging wind gusts with these storms. A heat
advisory will be in effect areawide Friday afternoon with heat
indices of up to 110 F. Storms are again possible Friday afternoon
across far northern Oklahoma. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with large hail and damaging winds as the primary
hazards.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Prolonged heat will continue into the weekend, with heat
headlines likely on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will pick up
Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours. Showers and
thunderstorms may be ongoing across the northern third/half of
Oklahoma Sunday morning, with an outflow boundary/cold front
located farther south. Somewhat cooler temperatures are expected
behind the boundary Sunday afternoon, but humidity will be keep
heat index values high areawide. The center of a mid-level ridge
is expected to build over Oklahoma Sunday, so afternoon
thunderstorm development along the residual surface boundary will
be low.

The ridge is expected to build eastward on Monday, but still
close enough to bring dry conditions and triple digit heat to much
of the area. The center of the ridge during this period is
expected to be across the southeastern U.S. Ensemble guidance
suggest 850 mb temperatures in the 25-30 C range, so triple digit
heat will continue. With the ridge displaced to the east, evening
thunderstorms will be possible across mainly northwest Oklahoma,
but chances are still on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

There is a low probability (20 to 30%) of thunderstorms later this
afternoon and into the evening over a portion of northwest and
northern Oklahoma. The greatest threat of severe thunderstorms is
north of our forecast area. However, there is the potential for strong
to damaging wind gusts and large hail with storms that develop in
the aforementioned areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 101  79  99 /  10   0   0  20
Hobart OK         78 105  81 101 /  20   0  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  79 104  80 102 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           77 105  73  97 /  30  10  30  20
Ponca City OK     76 103  77  97 /  20  20  20  30
Durant OK         74  99  78  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>023-027-
     033>039-044>046-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...01