Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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574 FXUS64 KOUN 151919 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 219 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A short wave centered over western Kansas is slowly making its way eastward. Cloud cover and a few showers and storms can be seen along the lead edge of this wave extending down through western Oklahoma / eastern panhandles. CAMs appear to be struggling to resolve this activity. CAMs generate more organized thunderstorms along an axis of surface convergence running through the panhandles and northwest Oklahoma this afternoon. As temperature/dewpoint spreads increase and modest deep layer shear develops, these thunderstorms could pose a strong to severe downburst wind risk. These storms will try to make their way eastward, running mainly on low-level jet energy (so, some uncertainty in how far east they`re able to make it before dissipating). One additional factor is we`ve seen signs of a few MCVs on radar / satellite, including a potential MCV in southwest Oklahoma that could help sustain a few showers into early morning. After the passage of this wave, tomorrow should be partly cloudy, breezy, and warm (highs in the 90s). Day && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 In between a trough over the northwest CONUS and a ridge over the eastern coast, temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm with only occasional low rain chances. Models depict a front approaching (and stalling near) northern Oklahoma on Tuesday, yielding low (20-30%) rain chances across northern Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday. We could additionally see some low rain chances associated with flow from the gulf around the western edge of the upper high mid to late week next week. Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail with gusty southerly winds most of the forecast period. TAF mention of TSRA will be confined to KWWR and KCSM this forecast issuance as elevated moist layer interacts with weak and slow moving waves moving out of the Panhandles. There is a chance for another MCV to develop overnight and keep scattered high based SHRA/TSRA going toward and beyond 12Z near KLAW/KSPS but probabilities too low to mention with this issuance. Something to watch for in later forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 73 90 73 92 / 10 10 0 0 Hobart OK 72 94 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 74 93 74 93 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 70 96 71 95 / 30 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 73 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 73 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...11