323
FXUS64 KOUN 031151
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
651 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the cold front are
expected to continue off and on through the day across portions of
northern and western Oklahoma. The degree of destabilization this
afternoon is somewhat in question given the amount of lingering
clouds and showers expected, but if we can see some stronger
heating (most likely on the southern periphery of morning
activitiy) then there would be a risk once again of strong to
marginally severe wind gusts. Overall this threat appears to be a
lower probability than yesterday.

Elsewhere to the south of the front, another day of hot temperatures
is expected, with heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees once
again. A heat advisory is in effect for these areas. Greater
uncertainty exists on the northern end of the advisory where greater
cloud cover could impact heating, but did not make any changes to
the existing advisory area at this time.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

By Thursday attention will turn to a stronger cold front which will
serve as a focus for afternoon and evening thunderstorm development.
Chances for storms will initially be highest (40-50%) along the
E-W oriented front across northern and central Oklahoma by late
afternoon into early evening, then expand southward overnight.
This could potentially impact outdoor holiday plans for July 4th,
with a risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail, heavy rain, and
frequent lighting with the strongest storms.

In addition to thunderstorm chances, Thursday will
also see another day of hot temperatures with heat indicies of 105
to 110 expected across most of the area outside of northwest
Oklahoma. Have gone ahead and issued a heat advisory for these
areas.

Temperatures will cool behind the front to near average for this
time of year Friday into the weekend across much of the area as the
center of the mid to upper ridge shifts westward and troughing sets
up over the central and eastern US. Models then show another front
approaching the area by late Sunday into Monday, which could bring
another round of showers and storms with it and drop temperatures
another few degrees.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

An area of generally light rain continues to move the northeast
this morning with VFR conditions. There is a chance that brief
reductions in visibility may occur with embedded, heavier pockets
of rainfall--but the probability is too low to include in the
TAFs. Strong to severe to thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
and evening across the northern half of Oklahoma, but the chance
of affecting a given terminal is too low to include the TAFs.

Winds will be somewhat variable across northern Oklahoma with
generally southerly winds elsewhere.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  79 101  71 /  10  10  30  40
Hobart OK        101  81 102  70 /  10  10  20  40
Wichita Falls TX 102  81 103  75 /   0   0  10  40
Gage OK           88  70  92  63 /  50  30  20  30
Ponca City OK     91  73  97  65 /  50  30  30  30
Durant OK        100  79 100  74 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ013-018>020-
     022>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ023>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...10