496
FXUS63 KPAH 182316
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
616 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions are forecast through the rest of the week
  with highs around 90 through Saturday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns are possible again on Thursday due
  to dry relative humidity.

- Rain chances return to the region late Sunday into early next
  week along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Surface high pressure will remain across the mid-Mississippi and
Tennessee Valley through the end of the week. Meanwhile weak
disturbances along the periphery of an upper level ridge will
largely remain northwest of our area. Some guidance tries to bring
some remnant showers into our far northwest early Friday morning and
again Friday night into Saturday. Can`t completely rule this
possibility out, but it doesn`t look especially promising. As the
upper ridge builds further northeast, we should see a slight uptick
in temperatures into the low 90s on Friday and Saturday.

Energy ejecting out of the southwest U.S. will lift across the
Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. This
should push a frontal boundary through our area. While some rain is
expected Sunday into Monday, amounts may be rather light in many
places due to the best forcing remaining well north of us. Certainly
doesn`t look like a drought buster by any means.

Model guidance varies quite a bit next week, but ensembles show a
general trend towards troughing across our area by mid to late week.
It could end up being a somewhat unsettled week with multiple rain
chances possible. Also we may need to monitor a possible tropical
disturbance in the Gulf mid to late next week that could play a
factor in the overall pattern. At this time, it seems most likely
that any moisture associated with that would stay to our south and
east, but you never know. Temperatures should trend back closer to
normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Winds will go calm overnight and with mostly clear skies should
allow for patchy fog again. Have fog in the TAF for CGI, PAH,
and MVN with highest confidence at CGI once again where some
restriction to IFR/LIFR are possible. VFR will prevail on
Thursday with some high clouds passing through. Winds will
continue to be light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...AD