Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
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882 FXUS66 KPDT 190926 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 226 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday... Bottom Line Up Front 1. Dry an warm conditions through the period. There is not a whole lot to speak about in regards to the short term. The upper level low that brought winds and rain to the region has since moved eastwards and out of the region. Models show the upper level flow has turned more to the northwest. Models also show that there is a dry air mass moving in along with it. AS the upper level flow continues to turn more zonal, winds will settle down and conditions will dry out. Models do show a few shortwaves rippling through the zonal flow, however, no precipitation will accompany them. Models show a surface level thermal trough moving in across the region underneath the zonal flow by Thursday. The thermal trough will bring with it warmer temperatures. EFI show temperatures today will be near normal with over 75% of the raw ensembles having temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s for the Pendleton area and central OR, mid to upper 80s for the Basins, Gorge and Kittitas and Yakima Valleys and mid 60s to low 70s for the higher terrains. Thursday over 65% of the raw ensembles have the Basins, central OR as well as the Pendleton area in the upper 80s to low 90s and the higher terrains in the mid to upper 70s. Friday will be the warmest day of the short term with over 80% of the raw ensembles showing the Pendleton area and central OR in the upper 80s to low 90s, the Basins and adjacent valleys in the mid 90s and the higher terrains in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Bennese/90 .LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday... Upper level ridging will be over the area on Saturday, before moving eastward as southwesterly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front and trough. Saturday looks to be the hottest day of the extended period and likely the hottest day of the summer so far. High temperatures will be well into the 90s, with locations in the Columbia Basin into the upper 90s, and possibly making a run at 100 degrees. Temperatures have been trending slightly higher, and the ECMWF is a bit higher than the GFS. For the Columbia Basin/Pasco...3 out of 30 (10%) of the GFS ensemble members are >=100 degrees on Saturday. The ECMWF ensemble members are warmer, showing about 30/50 members (60%) >=100 degrees on Saturday. The NBM is in the middle with a roughly 30% chance of highs >= 100 degrees. The ECMWF EFI does pick up some anomalies of 0.6 to 0.7 for high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday, generally across east-central and eastern Oregon, where normal highs would be lower. Despite the higher temperatures across the Columbia Basin on Saturday, anomalies are lower as higher temperatures in that location are not as anomalous in mid to late June. Temperatures cool down on Sunday, as the ridge moves further east, a cold front advances and the upper trough gets closer. However, temperatures will still remain above normal, general in the mid to upper 80s to around 90 degrees. There is also a chance of some showers in the Washington Cascades as the front moves through later Sunday into Monday. These showers will be the only precipitation across the region through the extended period, with much of the region remaining dry. Additionally, as the front crosses the area, winds will increase and become gusty, especially across the Columbia Basin, Gorge, Simcoe Highlands, and Kittitas Valley. Winds should gust generally in the 25 to 35 mph range, with some gusts as high as 40 mph, Sunday into Sunday night. Winds should begin to decrease on Monday. NBM probabilities of wind gusts >= 39 mph are 60 to 100 percent on Sunday. However, wind gusts probabilities decrease significantly at higher values. NBM probabilities of winds >= 47 mph are generally 30% or less except for a few spot locations and the Kittitas Valley. High temperatures will further decrease on Monday and will mainly be in the low to mid 80s. Highs on Tuesday will be similar to Wednesday. These temperatures are fairly close to normal. The deterministic models are in generally good agreement through the period. Some subtle differences appear around Monday/Tuesday. e However, by Tuesday the ensemble cluster are fairly split as well with each cluster having about 25% support of the ensembles. && .AVIATION...12Z TAFS...High probability (100%) of VFR conditions and winds 10 kts or less through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 82 50 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 85 52 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 87 55 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 83 53 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 88 53 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 82 50 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 81 46 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 77 47 84 52 / 10 0 0 0 GCD 80 48 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 88 58 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...90 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77