906
FXUS61 KPHI 270551
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
151 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late tonight through
Thursday morning. High pressure then builds in from the north
and west before moving offshore by Saturday. A warm front lifts
north through the region on Saturday, followed by a cold front
on Sunday. High pressure returns for the first half of the new
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Thunderstorms have largely moved offshore but scattered showers
of light to moderate rain linger across the region. Cold front
slowly works through the region tonight, but does not clear the
region until Thursday morning. Since it will be quite muggy and
dew points will not fall until Thursday afternoon, patchy fog
may develop, especially in areas where it rains.

Temperatures return to more seasonal levels on Thursday, topping
off in the mid to upper 80s. Surface dew points will fall into
the 50s during the afternoon as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes Thursday evening builds east
on Friday, and then the center of the high should be east of
Cape Cod Friday night. Tranquil conditions expected during this
time. Lows Thursday night will generally be in the low to mid
60s, though the southern Poconos could get down into the 50s.
Sunny and pleasant on Friday with seasonably warm temperatures.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, though cooler at the coasts
and in the mountains. Due to increasing cloud cover, lows will
be a few degrees warmer Friday night compared to Thursday night.

On Saturday, low pressure will be moving across the Northern
Plains and into the northern Great Lakes. A warm front will
develop out ahead of this system, and that will lift through the
eastern third of the U.S. Saturday afternoon. Surface dew
points will rise into the 70s throughout the region, and with
highs in the 80s, heat index values will be in the low to mid
90s.

Shortwave energy passing through the region will spark off
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with locally heavy
rain and gusty winds being the primary threats.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Saturday night. It will be a warm and humid night with lows in
the 70s, though not much below 80 from Philadelphia to
Wilmington and in Delmarva. In addition, surface dew points will
be well in the 70s, which will make for probably the most
uncomfortable night of the season so far.

Hot and humid again on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s, but surface dew points will be well in the mid to upper
70s. This should yield heat index values in the upper 90s to
around 100. A cold front approaches from the west, sparking off
another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
be severe with damaging winds and heavy rain that could result
in localized flooding as PWATs could approach 2.5 inches.

Showers and thunderstorms taper off Sunday night as the cold
front works its way through the region.

High pressure then builds through the first half of the new
work week with seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning...Lingering SHRA/TSRA possible through
07-09Z. A few gusts up to 20-30 kts possible. Sub- VFR
conditions in any storms. MVFR cigs may develop after 09Z but
confidence is low. SW winds 5 to 10 kt may become LGT/VRB for a
few hours before becoming NW 5 to 10 kt prior to 12Z. Low
confidence.

Thursday...VFR conditions expected. W-NW winds 5 to 10 kt in
the morning, then around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt in
the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...VFR

Saturday through Sunday night...VFR overall during the day.
Afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA will result in sub-VFR
conditions. Sub- VFR VSBYs in fog possible Saturday night and
Sunday night.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Will continue the Small Craft Advisory in effect for most of
tonight. S winds will continue to increase going into this
evening and will range from 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt
and seas building to around 5 feet. Winds turn west on Thursday
at 10 to 15 kt.

Showers and thunderstorms continue early this morning and will
result in wind gusts of 40 kt or higher and VSBY restrictions in
heavy rain.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Sub-SCA conditions. Fair
weather.

Saturday through Sunday night...SCA conditions developing
Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms
will impact the waters during this time.

Monday...Sub-SCA conditions.

Rip Currents...

Thursday...West to northwesterly winds around 10-15 mph in the
morning, will becoming southerly around 5-10 mph in the
afternoon. Breaking waves around 2-3 feet for New Jersey beaches
and 1-2 feet for Delaware beaches. Due to higher waves along
New Jersey beaches, opted for a MODERATE Risk of dangerous rip
currents there and a LOW Risk for the Delaware beaches.

Friday...Northeast to easterly winds around 15 mph may gust
around 20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves around 2-3 feet
for all beaches. With more of an onshore flow component to the
wind and winds being a bit greater than Thursday, have opted to
go with a MODERATE Risk of dangerous rip currents for all NJ/DE
beaches on Friday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for today.

Location               Record High (6/26)
Philadelphia, PA.......100/1952
Allentown, PA..........99/1952
Reading, PA............102/1952
Mount Pocono, PA.......92/1952
Trenton, NJ............100/1952
AC Airport, NJ.........98/1952
AC Marina, NJ..........99/1952
Wilmington, DE.........99/1952
Georgetown, DE.........99/1952

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ450>453.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...AKL/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...AKL/MPS
MARINE...DeSilva/MPS
CLIMATE...WFO PHI