Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
818 FXUS65 KPIH 151945 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 145 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .DISCUSSION... Is today the last day with widespread temps in the 80s across eastern Idaho? It`s certainly possible, not a guarantee though, but what is a guarantee is that much of the week ahead will be much colder than normal as a series of low pressure systems look to impact the region throughout the workweek. Southerly flow out ahead of the first of these lows is becoming enhanced over the region this afternoon and temperatures have warmed quickly into the 70s and 80s. Afternoon satellite imagery shows gradually increasing CU field as well but so far, not seeing any precipitation. This will change quickly as we get into the evening hours however as CAMs are in good agreement in moisture surging into the area from the south bringing fairly good coverage of showers and even a few thunderstorms. The stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds to around 45 mph or so. We should see a bit of a lull in the precipitation from around sunrise through the early afternoon Monday when rain looks to become a sure bet for just about everywhere. This will be due to the aforementioned low moving closer to the region throughout the day bringing increased clouds and lots of moisture to our area. By daybreak Tuesday, the low will basically be over the area and this looks to be the wettest and coolest day of the week ahead. Valley locations will likely only top out in the lower 60s with 40s and 50s expected across the higher terrain. QPF amounts in the Mon- Tue timeframe remain similar to previous forecasts although perhaps a bit lower. Either way, most of us should around 1/4" at the minimum with parts of the central mountains and eastern highlands seeing an inch or more. The highest peaks across eastern Idaho could see a bit of light snow accumulations above 9-10kft. This low moves northeast on Wednesday into eastern Montana the Canadian Prairies while a second low swings into the Great Basin and moves slowly to the east from midweek and into next weekend. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air to the region that should linger into next weekend but the bulk of the precip looks to stay south of the area. The forecast will carry PoPs but through much of this time period but any precip looks scattered in nature and total QPF through the period is rather light. For the weekend and into early next week, the most recent (12Z) ECMWF run has trended warmer and drier like the GFS has been showing for the past few days. There`s still a lot of run to ran variability in the guidance though and the current forecast is utilizing the NBM. That being said, if this warmer and drier trend continues in the guidance, expect temperature forecasts to trend upwards throughout the days ahead as the current NBM appears too cold given the forecast upper level pattern. Good thing this is still a week away...lots of time to fine-tune. McKaughan && .AVIATION... First wave tonight may bring some convection and isolated thunderstorms and have some vicinity and TEMPO groups mainly after 03Z until 08Z except BYI where may begin at 00Z. Will have a dry period with no convection Monday morning but expect showers and thunderstorms to return after 18Z Monday. Will have some gusty southerly winds this afternoon at PIH and IDA through 03Z this evening with gusts 20 to 30 knots. GK && .FIRE WEATHER... Pattern is going to change as an upper low moves on shore in California today and southerly flow will increase and allow moisture into Idaho as the low pushes northeast. Expect some evening showers and thunderstorms tonight. Expect a dry spell early Monday with the showers and thunderstorms again increasing Monday afternoon and continuing off and on through Tuesday night. Wetting rains are expected in all locations through Tuesday night with a half inch in many low elevations with at least a chance of over an inch in high elevations. A second system will continue the threat for showers through THursday mainly in zones 427 and 413. Will have one more day of very mild temperatures Monday then much colder conditions will move in the remainder of the week. Highs in the 40s and 50s mountains and 50s and 60s low elevations on Tuesday then 50s mountains and 60s valleys Wednesday through Friday. GK && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$