312
FXUS65 KPIH 290854
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
254 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Sunday. Much warmer weather is on tap for
this weekend, with today being the warmest of the two...despite
some increase in cloud cover later today. The higher resolution
models want to kick of some showers/storms late this afternoon and
evening across the central mountains down into the Snake Plain and
Magic Valley. While it is possible, we may end up with nothing but
virga at this point. The probability of thunder/lightning is very
low, so we will keep any chance under 10%. For overnight, we will
keep with the same idea of any potential for showers/storms under
10% across the entire area. The low will pass through the northern
US and Canada tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds overall will be
on the increase, with the strongest winds across the upper end of
the Snake Plain/INL. There is a 20-40% chance of sustained winds
over 30mph and 10-30% chance of gusts over 45mph. With lower
probabilities of exceeding WIND ADVISORY at the moment, we will
NOT opt for any headlines. The chance of showers and storms will
be on the increase, with the highest chances across portions of
the central mountains and along the Montana border. Even if we see
any bursts of rainfall with stronger storms, amounts will remain
light with gust potential over 35mph...with a 50-70% shot of
exceeding that up along the Montana border. The chance of showers
and isolated storms will persist, especially across the
southern/southeast/eastern highlands and Snake Plain, tomorrow
night.  Keyes

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

A cold front will pass through the region on Monday. This will
produce showers and thunderstorms with the best chances from Idaho
Falls northwards where the dynamics are a little stronger. Breezy
conditions will accompany the front as well. We stand about a 40%
chance of reaching or exceeding wind advisory levels on Monday,
especially across the upper Snake Plain.

After Monday, most of the extended looks dry. Upper level trough
will produce slightly below normal temperatures through midweek.
However, the overwhelming majority (about 75%) of model solutions so
a large ridge arriving late week to produce above normal
temperatures once again.

13

&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR ceilings at all locations today with light
winds. Typical downvalley winds turning upvalley this afternoon
at KSUN likely.

13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer weather returns over the weekend, with the
warmest and driest day (precipitation and humidity wise) being
today. At the moment, there is a very low probability this evening
of a dry thunderstorm across the central mountains and down into
portions of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. We will most likely
only see some virga out of this. This trend will persist into the
overnight hours. We are also expecting poor overnight humidity
recovery across portions of 413 and 427 tonight. For Sunday, winds
will be on the increase across all of central and eastern
Idaho...although humidity will be increasing. Gusts of 20-35mph
will be common, with some gusts of 35-40mph are possible across
portions of 410 and 425...as well as around Bear Lake.
Thunderstorms will be on the increase as well, with isolated
thunderstorms expected across most locations at some point
tomorrow afternoon and night. Coverage will reach scattered along
the Montana border and across the central mountains in Zones 475
and 476. Rainfall amounts will be light, only the highest
potential for wetting rains across 475 and 476 and peaking around
35%. As a second "wave" drops into this passing low Monday,
showers and thunderstorm chances remain over most of central and
eastern Idaho...except for generally south of a Hailey to
Montpelier line. Monday will also be breezy but with elevated
humidity across the board. Looking toward the 4th of July, we will
need to watch a low dropping southeast. It looks to remain east of
the Divide, but the Blend of Models wants to keep a few showers
and storms closer to the Montana border. Wind gusts will be
elevated but afternoon humidity isn`t looking terribly low at the
moment. Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$