844
FXUS65 KPUB 231129
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
529 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog likely, especially in the San Luis Valley (SLV)

- Seasonable temps today

- Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected for
  Tuesday, with above normal temperatures and mostly dry
  conditions persisting through the remainder of the forecast
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Currently...

A 2AM, fog/low clouds were developing in the San Luis Valley. Some
low clouds were also noted in obs/low cloud sat pix imgy over the
Monument area and vcnty KABH. Skies have cleared and radiational
cooling was ongoing, and with the moisture we have had, is allowing
for fog and low clouds to develop over parts of the region. Most
susceptible areas will be in the SLV as the low level moisture is
trapped in this region. Other areas it may be more problematic as
drainage flow may assist in decreasing the fog potential. Will
continue to monitor.

Additionally, some low clouds were noted along the CO/KS border areas
and CO/NM border regions.

Today...

After any fog does develop, it should burn off by mid morning over
the region, with it lasting maybe a bit longer over the SLV.
Otherwise today will be a very nice day over the region with
temperatures in the seasonable range. Very little in the way of
cloudiness is anticipated most areas. The only chance of an
isold shower or -tsra will be over the San Juans.

Tonight...

CLear skies and drier conditions expected, with min temps running
about 8 to 10F degrees warmer than this mornings low temps. Can`t
rule out some more fog redeveloping in the San Luis valley towards
sunrise tomorrow. In addition, a cool front will be coming down the
plains and this may keep winds up from a northerly component late
tonight, especially north of US-50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Tuesday..

Models have trended even drier with Tuesday`s post-frontal forecast.
Winds look to be light and mainly easterly throughout the day, with
enough dry air in place to prevent any impacts from upslope.
Relative humidity values look to fall down into the 20% range across
the area that afternoon, with no precipitation expected.
Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees cooler than Monday, and
near to just below normal for this time of year. This will mean
highs in the 70s across our plains and mountain valleys, with highs
in the 50s for our higher terrain locations.

Wednesday Onwards..

Our extended forecast will be characterized by above normal
temperatures and dry conditions, as a low looks to swing south and
sit somewhere over the Arkansas/Texas/eastern Oklahoma region, where
it begins to interact with a tropical system later in the period.
This setup will keep high pressure in place over Colorado, allowing
for strong subsidence and warming for the next several days. Apart
from one or two small chances at shortwave energy and potential
mountain thunderstorms, precipitation is not expected from Wednesday
onwards through the weekend. Temperatures look to climb well into
the 80s every afternoon on the plains under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected at both stations
for the next 24 hours. Fog has developed just west of both
sites, up against the terrain near and over KAFF and over Pueblo
Reservoir this morning, though fog is not expected to move over
KCOS or KPUB. Winds are expected to remain light and diurnally
driven. A cool front will pass through both stations late in the
period, bringing gusty north winds late tonight around 12Z.

For KALS..

MVFR and IFR restrictions due to low ceilings and visibilities are
possible early this morning, mainly between 12Z and 15Z. After 15Z,
VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period,
with mid and upper-level cloud decks and mainly light, diurnally
driven winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR