536
FXUS65 KPUB 270402
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1002 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening over the eastern
  plains, a few storms will be capable of producing strong
  outflow winds to 60 mph or greater, and hail up to half dollar
  size.

- Smoke from the Oak Ridge wildfire may obscure visibilities in
  an around the Middle Creek River Valley through tonight.

- Thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon tomorrow over
  the mountains, with a few moving over into the I-25 corridor
  by late afternoon, and then spread eastward over the plains by
  early evening.

- Daily threat of afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms, with the strongest storms most likely on
  Sunday.

- Cold front late Friday evening will bring temporary relief
  Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Tonight...

A upper level ridge over the region continues to dominate, with the
axis centered over the Four Corners area. This is allowing for mid-
level moisture to be advected up from the southwest and over the
region, which will allow for thunderstorms to continue to develop
and move eastward this evening over the plains. As storms head
further east and closer towards the CO/KS state-line, they will be
moving into an environment which will be even more conditionally
unstable with higher surface dewpoints, as well as better CAPE (over
2300 J/kg over Prowers County) and better effective bulk shear
approaching 40 kts over Baca County, there will be the possibility
of stronger to severe storms. This may produce gusty outflow winds
of up to 60 mph or greater, and hail of up to half dollar size in
diameter. Moreover, given that there are currently mid 50 dewpoints
along portions of the I-25 corridor, and some areas of higher CAPE
of around 1500 J/kg for some locations, a stronger storm producing
hail of up to 3/4 inches with gusty outflow winds of around 50 to 55
mph cannot be ruled out through the early part of this evening. The
threat of storms becoming severe will increase east of the I-25
corridor.

Due to the Oak Ridge wildfire, there will also be some smoke and
possibly reduced visibilities in and around the vicinity of Beulah
and up the Middle Creek River Valley during the overnight hours,
especially as there are some downsloping drainage winds occurring
towards daybreak. Mostly cloudy skies will continue to stick around
for most of the CWA with only partially clearing. More mid-level
moisture moving over later this evening could also keep some showers
going over the higher terrain through early tomorrow morning, and
also keep temperatures more modified, with lows only dropping into
the mid to upper 60s across a majority of the plains, and generally
in the 50s for high country, with only some 40s for the highest
elevations and within the high mountain valleys.

Tomorrow...

The upper level ridge axis will continue to shift further towards
the east with an approaching major shortwave upstream over the
northwestern CONUS. This will help to advect in more mid-level
subtropical moisture up from the southwest and over southern
Colorado, which will lead to the development of more afternoon
thunderstorms over the higher terrain, which will help to move off
into the I-25 corridor by later in the afternoon. There will still
be unstable conditions, especially over the plains, and therefore
the threat of stronger to severe storms will be back in place,
especially along the I-25 corridor and eastward. Downsloping winds
will also allow for temperatures to warm up for the lower
elevations, with highs topping out into the mid to upper 90s over
most of the plains.    -Stewey

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Thursday night and Friday...Moisture trapped under a flat ridge of
high pressure to the south will continue high-based convection
chances across the forecast area Thu evening, then again Fri
afternoon, though the greatest chances will be found over the higher
terrain. The most likely threat from any storms will be gusty
outflow winds, cloud to ground lightning, and the potential for
brief periods of moderate to heavy rain...but larger hail is still
an outside possibility. A low system to the north will push across
MT along the US and Canada border, forcing a cold front south into
CO. This front is expected to reach the southeastern plains late Fri
night, so ahead of the frontal passage expect brisk westerly flow at
times. High temps Fri are expected to warm into the 80s to near 90F
for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the plains.

Saturday and Sunday...Surface winds will swing around to an easterly
direction Sat morning post-frontal, pushing llvl moisture west
towards the eastern mts and I-25 Corridor. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with enhanced cloud cover is anticipated across much
of the forecast area through the day Saturday, and high temps will
likely end up being in the 80s which is normal for this time of year
and much more reasonable. On Sunday the surface flow becomes more
southerly, which will allow a slight increase in maximum
temperatures through the day, but there will still be an enhanced
chance for stronger convection through at least the first half of
the day, then tapering off through the evening across the far
eastern plains. Highs on Sunday are forecast to warm into the lower
80s for the high valleys, and 80s to lower 90s for the plains.

Monday through Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure centered over
TX will start to amplify late Sunday night, increasing west-
southwest flow aloft across the region once again. A monsoon-like
plume of moisture will once again be drawn up over the Four Corners
and into CO, helping to spark a daily chance of afternoon and eve
showers and thunderstorms. The heat bubble starts to redevelop, with
highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for
the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 959 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A monsoon pattern will be over the region during the next 24
hours. Likewise, we could see a passing shower at any of the taf
sites through the next 24 hours, but the best chance will be
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Overall, VFR will
prevail during most, if not all, of this fcst period, but a
brief heavier shower could cause MVFR conditions. Winds will
generally be light and diurnally driven, except in and near
convective activity.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH