624
FXUS62 KRAH 281043
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the New England coast today and tonight.
A hotter and more humid airmass will become established across
the area this weekend. A cold front will approach the area late in
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

Increasing heat and humidity after one day relief.

Most areas broke long strings of 90+ degree days on Thursday. RDU
had a string of 14 days 90+ broken with a high of 88 Thursday. In
addition, only 0.01 of rain had fallen during this time.
Greensboro`s 90+ degree streak ended Thursday at 6 straight. Most
impressive; however, is the streak of 17 straight days of having no
measurable rainfall at Greensboro. The 0.04 Thursday broke the
string, but brought very little benefit. The clouds and a bit of
light rain Thursday did bring the temperature relief, but that is
now over.

High pressure will bring a relatively comfortable morning across the
region today. However, as the high shifts off the New England coast
during the day, the surface flow will veer from light NE to SE.
After the dew points mix out some this morning into the early
afternoon under the dry air, they will begin to increase again later
this afternoon from the SE. Dew points will then increase into the
70s for almost all areas this evening and overnight. Highs today
should top out in the lower to mid 90s.

The much needed chance of rain looks meager. Models suggest a few
widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
later this afternoon and evening, south and west of the Triangle.
Areas from the Triangle north and east are likely to remain dry.

The highest chance of showers (30 percent or so) will be near the
seabreeze boundary late today and this evening that should shift
well inland into the Southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Models
then show some low level convergence and a bit of a maximum in
instability over the Southern Piedmont or Sandhills during
the early to mid evening. Lows tonight will return to the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

Hot and mainly dry high pressure will be in firm control again
Saturday. This will mean high heat and humidity again. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for much of the region as heat
indices are forecast into the 100`s east of the Triad. Actual highs
will reach 92-98. There is only a slight chance of a late day storm
along the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain and in the far western
Piedmont. Lows will struggle to fall under 80 many areas Saturday
night with little to no showers expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Friday...

A cold front over the Ohio River valley will move southeast across
North Carolina Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. In advance of the
front, the hot weather will continue along with model guidance
suggesting dewpoints will be in the mid 70s, which will result in
very humid conditions. The highest heat index values are expected to
be in eastern counties, where a heat advisory will likely be
necessary. As the front comes through, the very moist air should
result in high instability for thunderstorms, although minimal wind
through the vertical profile should limit severe thunderstorm
potential. While NBM guidance is going with 80-90 pops in some
locations, especially across the southeast Sunday night, will be
conservative and stick with 70 pops considering models seem to be a
bit optimistic recently with precipitation coverage.

High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes behind the frontal
passage, although scattered showers/thunderstorms remain in the
forecast across southern counties Monday before the forecast
completely dries out for Tuesday. The high will weaken as it passes
across the mid-Atlantic states and over the Atlantic Ocean Tuesday
night, then another cold front could move from the Ohio River valley
into the region late Thursday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be
relatively mild - in the 80s - with a northerly component to the
wind, but as soon as the high moves offshore, the flow will veer
back to the south and the heat will return. Expect mid 90s for highs
on Wednesday and upper 90s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected through 12z/Sat. The
exceptions will be the chance of low stratus and fog at KRWI through
13z/today, then a chance of low stratus at KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI
tonight between 07z and 12z.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area wide Sun morning
with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon-
evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to
mid week next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969

June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936

July 1:
KGSO: 77/1970
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Badgett/Luchetti
CLIMATE...RAH