225
FXUS62 KRAH 271952 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
352 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across the eastern Carolinas will drift southeast
tonight and linger through early Friday, before lifting
north as a warm front. A hotter and more humid airmass will
become established across the area this weekend before a cold front
approaches the area on Sunday and moves into the Carolinas on
Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

As the cold from moves to the south east this afternoon scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue to develops along the far
southeastern portion of the CWA. Behind the front a few lingering
light showers continue to slowly move across the region. All shower
activity should exit the area by this evening with dry conditions
expected overnight into early Friday morning. Although the front is
expected to push through a few low stratus clouds could develop
early Friday morning reducing visibilities. Areas most favored for
these conditions will be the Sandhills and Coastal Plain regions
with some areas as far NW as the Triangle. Temperatures will
continue to cool down this evening with overnight lows in the low
70s with cooler spots in the upper 60s. Winds will be light and
variable overnight, but by morning have a general E/NE flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...

High pressure across New England on Friday morning will shift
offshore on Wednesday allowing the lingering cold front across the
eastern Carolinas to lift north as a warm front on Friday. A light
northeast low level flow on Friday morning will veer to
southeasterly during the afternoon and continue into the overnight.
Surface dew points will range in the upper 60s to lower 70s to start
the day, they may mix out a bit toward midday but with the
southeasterly flow they will jump into the lower to mid 70s during
the afternoon and overnight. With the southeast flow expect a decent
amount of cloudiness and the potential for some widely scattered
convection during the afternoon and into the overnight with the
convection favored in an arc across the south and west.
Highs will be complicated by the amount of cloudiness but should
range in the upper 80s near the VA border and Triad and the lower
90s in most other locations. Maximum heat index values will
range in the 90s to around 100. Lows Friday night will be warm
and muggy with the clouds and southeast flow with lows of 70-75.
-Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM Thursday...

This above-normal temp stretch will hit yet another crescendo this
weekend, with convection chances peaking Sun/Sun night. A brief temp
respite arrives early next week, however this will quickly give way
to a return to excessive heat midweek.

Sat-Sun night: Well above normal temps and high dewpoints return
Sat, as low level thermal ridging and and warm/stable mid levels
spread in from the W and WSW. A potent northern stream shortwave
trough swings through the upper midwest and N Great Lakes Sat but
the main band of westerlies holds N of NC, leaving us within a
regime of light steering flow. Weak surface troughing will be in
place through the Piedmont, but a loose low level height field
yielding weak low level flow will limit any low level mass
convergence. As such, any storms Sat are apt to be weakly forced and
more pulse-type, focusing on subtle boundaries and the sea breeze.
PW will be rebounding Sat, with model projections of values surging
over 2" through the NC Piedmont, so expect scattered late-day
coverage despite the lack of a focus or strong mechanism to force
ascent. Thicknesses and surface dewpoints will rebound as well,
supporting highs Sat in the low-mid 90s and heat index values of 100-
105 in all but NW sections. By Sun/Sun night, the mid level trough
will dig positively and somewhat strongly over extreme SE Canada and
the St Lawrence Valley into the Northeast, with a corresponding
strengthening in cyclonic mid level flow over our area as the
attendant surface cold front approaches late in the day. Low level
thicknesses rise to 10-15 m above normal ahead of the front with
surface dewpoints also likely to be quite high, well into the 70s
with only modest afternoon increases given low level moisture influx
ahead of the front. Sun is likely to be another day of dangerous
heat, with highs mostly in the mid 90s and heat indices again around
100-105 over most of the area. Sun should have the highest rain
chances, as most deterministic models show PW rising to highly
anomalous values around 2.5" along with moderate SBCAPE and decent
(but still less than ideal) deep layer bulk shear. Will continue
with a period of likely pops Sun afternoon and evening, extending
into the overnight in the S.

Mon-Thu: The front will settle to our S for Mon/Tue with high
pressure nosing in from the N, resulting in mostly dry weather
(except for pops in the S Mon, a nod to a possible slower frontal
progression). The mid level trough extending down through the Mid
Atlantic early Mon will shift offshore by Tue as ridging aloft
builds anew from the S Plains/Lower Miss Valley, so expect the
mostly dry weather to persist through mid week at least. As the
surface ridge pushes out over the open NW Atlantic by Wed, the
oppressive heat will return. After near normal highs and gloriously
low dewpoints in the 60s Mon/Tue, we should see highs in the mid-
upper 90s return for Wed and July 4th, with very low chances for
showers and storms. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions currently across the region as cold front moves east
over the SE portion of NC. While conditions are expected to remain
VFR over the Triad for the TAF period a brief period of MVFR
conditions could be possible as the showers move across the region.
At KRDU, showers are moving in and expected to bring reduced
ceilings and visibility at times with any heavier showers. Have a
TEMPO for thunderstorms early this afternoon but looks like all the
thunderstorms development will stay to the southeast. MVFR
conditions are expected early Friday morning as low stratus develops
over the region before sunrise and burns off. At KFAY, While the
lines of storms are just to the south of the terminal more
thunderstorms are developing to the southwest and expected to impact
flight restrictions at the terminal. Have MVFR conditions possible
this afternoon then becoming VFR for a short period of time before
low status and or fog develops across the Sandhills early Friday
morning. VFR conditions will return for Friday. At RWI, VFR
conditions will continue with VCSH over the next few hours as the
boundary moves across the region. MVFR conditions are possible
however, at RWI early Friday morning with development of low stratus
across the Coastal Plains. VFR conditions expected to return just
after sunrise.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area-wide Sat-Sun
mornings, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon-evening
showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to mid week
next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 27:
KFAY: 102/1998

June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969

June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936

July 1:
KGSO: 77/1970
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...RAH