Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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195 FXUS62 KRAH 280644 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 243 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the New England coast today and tonight. A hotter and more humid airmass will become established across the area this weekend. A cold front will approach the area late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday... Increasing heat and humidity after one day relief. Most areas broke long strings of 90+ degree days on Thursday. RDU had a string of 14 days 90+ broken with a high of 88 Thursday. In addition, only 0.01 of rain had fallen during this time. Greensboro`s 90+ degree streak ended Thursday at 6 straight. Most impressive; however, is the streak of 17 straight days of having nor measurable rainfall at Greensboro. The 0.04 Thursday broke the string, but brought very little benefit. The clouds and a bit of light rain Thursday did bring the temperature relief, but that is now over. High pressure will bring a relatively comfortable morning across the region today. However, as the high shifts off the New England coast during the day, the surface flow will veer from light NE to SE. After the dew points mix out some this morning into the early afternoon under the dry air, they will begin to increase again later this afternoon from the SE. Dew points will then increase into the 70s for almost all areas this evening and overnight. Highs today should top out in the lower to mid 90s. The much needed chance of rain looks meager. Models suggest a few widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm later this afternoon and evening, south and west of the Triangle. Areas from the Triangle north and east are likely to remain dry. The highest chance of showers (30 percent or so) will be near the seabreeze boundary late today and this evening that should shift well inland into the Southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Models then show some low level convergence and a bit of a maximum in instability over the Southern Piedmont or Sandhills during the early to mid evening. Lows tonight will return to the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday... Hot and mainly dry high pressure will be in firm control again Saturday. This will mean high heat and humidity again. A Head Advisory will likely be needed for much of the region as heat indices are forecast into the 100`s east of the Triad. Actual highs will reach 92-98. There is only a slight chance of a late day storm along the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain and in the far western Piedmont. Lows will struggle to fall under 80 many areas Saturday night with little to no showers expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM Thursday... This above-normal temp stretch will hit yet another crescendo this weekend, with convection chances peaking Sun/Sun night. A brief temp respite arrives early next week, however this will quickly give way to a return to excessive heat midweek. Sat-Sun night: Well above normal temps and high dewpoints return Sat, as low level thermal ridging and and warm/stable mid levels spread in from the W and WSW. A potent northern stream shortwave trough swings through the upper Midwest and N Great Lakes Sat but the main band of westerlies holds N of NC, leaving us within a regime of light steering flow. Weak surface troughing will be in place through the Piedmont, but a loose low level height field yielding weak low level flow will limit any low level mass convergence. As such, any storms Sat are apt to be weakly forced and more pulse-type, focusing on subtle boundaries and the sea breeze. PW will be rebounding Sat, with model projections of values surging over 2" through the NC Piedmont, so expect scattered late-day coverage despite the lack of a focus or strong mechanism to force ascent. Thicknesses and surface dewpoints will rebound as well, supporting highs Sat in the low-mid 90s and heat index values of 100- 105 in all but NW sections. By Sun/Sun night, the mid level trough will dig positively and somewhat strongly over extreme SE Canada and the St Lawrence Valley into the Northeast, with a corresponding strengthening in cyclonic mid level flow over our area as the attendant surface cold front approaches late in the day. Low level thicknesses rise to 10-15 m above normal ahead of the front with surface dewpoints also likely to be quite high, well into the 70s with only modest afternoon increases given low level moisture influx ahead of the front. Sun is likely to be another day of dangerous heat, with highs mostly in the mid 90s and heat indices again around 100-105 over most of the area. Sun should have the highest rain chances, as most deterministic models show PW rising to highly anomalous values around 2.5" along with moderate SBCAPE and decent (but still less than ideal) deep layer bulk shear. Will continue with a period of likely pops Sun afternoon and evening, extending into the overnight in the S. Mon-Thu: The front will settle to our S for Mon/Tue with high pressure nosing in from the N, resulting in mostly dry weather (except for pops in the S Mon, a nod to a possible slower frontal progression). The mid level trough extending down through the Mid Atlantic early Mon will shift offshore by Tue as ridging aloft builds anew from the S Plains/Lower Miss Valley, so expect the mostly dry weather to persist through mid week at least. As the surface ridge pushes out over the open NW Atlantic by Wed, the oppressive heat will return. After near normal highs and gloriously low dewpoints in the 60s Mon/Tue, we should see highs in the mid- upper 90s return for Wed and July 4th, with very low chances for showers and storms. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 149 AM Friday... Generally VFR conditions are expected through 06z/Sat. Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area-wide Sat-Sun mornings with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to mid week next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 30: KFAY: 102/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914 June 29: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 78/1914 KFAY: 76/1969 June 30: KGSO: 74/1936 KRDU: 80/1936 KFAY: 79/1936 July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 75/2012 KFAY: 76/1990 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Badgett/Luchetti CLIMATE...RAH