540
FXUS65 KREV 262042
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
142 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Gusty west winds through this evening with drier air bringing
  critical fire weather conditions and choppy lakes.

* Another round of increased breezes this weekend with dry air in
  place could bring more fire weather concerns and choppy lakes.

* For next week including the July 4th holiday, above average
  temperatures are likely with typical afternoon breezes and very
  low chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds associated with a trough passage across the Pacific
Northwest will increase through this afternoon, while the air mass
becomes drier and produces enhanced fire weather and lake
recreation concerns. A few storms may form again through early
evening in west central NV mainly east of US-95 and the southeast
corner of Mono County, but activity will be much more sparse
compared to yesterday.

While winds will diminish in most valleys overnight, gusts of
50-70 mph will continue for higher elevations and ridge tops.
Behind this trough on Thursday, temperatures ease back a bit to
near late June averages, with some leftover W-NW breezes during
the day.

Flat ridging and benign weather through Friday will then be
followed by another trough passage this weekend across the
northwest US. This system is tracking a bit farther north compared
to today`s trough, so the wind gusts appear to be a bit less--
currently projected near 30 mph Saturday-Sunday afternoon.

For next week, the overall pattern continues to favor dry
conditions with northwest flow aloft transition to a prevailing
high pressure ridge. There are discrepancies on where this ridge
center sets up and which days would bring the peak strength over
CA-NV. The more aggressive ridge scenarios for mid-late next week
would support triple digit heat across the lower elevations
(about 25-45% chance of 100+ degrees, and even up to 10% chance of
reaching 105 degrees). The ECMWF/GFS deterministic data currently
sits at the high end of the temperature ranges, while blended
ensemble guidance suggests a less amplified ridge with above
average but less extreme temperatures around the July 4th
holiday. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* SW-W Wind gusts 25-30 kt at the main terminals will produce
  areas of turbulence thru 03-05Z this evening. With winds
  remaining gusty over the ridges (50-60 kt) overnight into
  Thursday morning while surface winds diminish, some shear may
  also occur. Winds on Thursday become W-NW with gusts mainly
  20-25 kt.

* Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least the
  remainder of the month. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* All ongoing Red Flag Warnings continue through 11 PM this
  evening for much of western NV and far northeast CA.

* Yesterday`s t-storms produced plenty of lightning across
  northwest and west central NV southward to Mono County. As winds
  increase this afternoon, followed by the drier air mass on
  Thursday, some new fire starts may emerge as holdovers from this
  lightning activity, especially where rainfall was more sparse.

* W-NW wind gusts on Thursday behind the cold front/trough passage
  will be lower than today (mainly 20-30 mph), but it will be
  notably drier with afternoon RH dropping to around 10% for most
  lower elevations. While watches/warnings aren`t planned for
  Thursday, a few locations in western NV could see short periods
  of critical fire weather conditions. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ420.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ003-004.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ423-458.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening CAZ270-278.

&&

$$