Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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804 FXUS61 KRLX 230445 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1245 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today, with the front crossing tonight. More seasonable air can be expected behind the front on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1240 AM Sunday... Unseasonably warm air will continue today, but not as hot as the past week. An approaching cold front will allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms today. SPC has outlooked the region with a chance of severe weather this afternoon and evening. With a freezing level of 15000 to 16000 feet, thinking that the main threat will be wind. With decent low level shear and helicity values, central Ohio and northwestern West Virginia even have a small chance of tornados. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday... The severe threat ahead of the cold front tapers Sunday night with the loss of heating after sunset. However, there could still be a strong to marginally severe wind threat as thunderstorms move into and through the mountains, especially if they are able to organize into lines or line segments amid modest 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30 knots. The heavy rainfall threat also wanes Sunday night, as mid level drying crashes PW values even ahead of the actual surface frontal passage. High pressure builds into the area Monday afternoon and will provide a clear, calm and comfortably cool night Monday night. With the rain 24 hours earlier, fog is likely to form overnight, at least in the valleys. Central guidance temperatures reflect the end of the heat wave, with highs down near normal on Monday. Lows Monday morning will be perceptibly lower across northwest portions of the forecast area, slightly lower southeast, compared with Sunday morning. Lows Tuesday morning will be noticeably lower than recent nights throughout the area, and a bit lower in the valleys compared with central guidance. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 125 PM Saturday... High pressure provides dry weather most, if not all, of the day Tuesday. With the upper level ridge associated with the current heat wave shunted off to the deep south/southwestern U.S. next week, west to northwest mid-upper level flow with embedded short wave troughs/convective complexes traverse the area late Tuesday or Tuesday night through Wednesday. With low level south to southwest gradient flow behind exiting high pressure feeding increasing warmth and moisture back into the area, rounds of showers and thunderstorms become possible Tuesday night, and then remain so until a deep enough short wave trough pushes a cold front through the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure sails by to the north of the area Thursday night, and then gives way to low level return flow beneath building heights, as the ridge expands back over the area, to bring a dry end to the week. Central guidance reflects the return of modest heat Tuesday and Wednesday, interrupted Thursday before returning amid the building heights to end the week. Lowlands forecast highs are lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s, still a little above normal for Thursday, then up to the mid 90s for Friday and Saturday. Afternoon dew points are forecast to be down around 60 on Tuesday, and then mainly in the mid to upper 60s for the balance of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1245 AM Sunday... VFR conditions can be expected early this morning. An approaching cold front will then allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop late this morning and into this afternoon. Generally VFR conditions can be expected outside of the precipitation. A cold front will then swing through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will once again cause restrictions along and ahead of the front. Behind the front, some MVFR ceilings are possible in the western upslope region of the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High early this morning, then medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Some fog might form in the deeper mountain river valleys early this morning. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/23/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in fog overnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...RPY