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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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484 FXUS61 KRLX 280530 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 130 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly clear/cool this late morning under high pressure. Warm and increasingly humid today with isolated afternoon storm potential. A cold front crosses mid weekend, with more storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 AM Friday... High pressure fleets toward the east away from the area allowing southerly flow to ramp up bringing in higher dewpoints and much more moisture. By the afternoon, a system headed for the Great Lakes will drag a warm frontal boundary from south to north across the CWA. This feature will promote thunderstorm activity, however the severe threat does not exist and the activity should be confined to just isolated in nature more than anything else. Not to say there cannot be a strong to severe storm due to modest wind shear, heck of a lot of DCAPE with plenty instability and moisture as we get up in the low 90`s and low 70`s in temperatures and dewpoints, respectively. If the Cu field during the afternoon gets agitated, and if any moderate Cu could then get past the low to midlevel CAPs, then thunderstorms may become strong instead of the pulse weak type. There is also a lot of very dry air in the mid to upper levels as seen by the intense hydrolapses on the forecast soundings which will be a thunderstorm deterrent. Regardless, we shouldn`t see too much activity until the cold front comes later on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 205 PM Thursday... There are still some indications that a weak 500mb shortwave could move across the area Friday night, which may help trigger some isolated to scattered showers or storms overnight in the increasingly moist airmass. Add in an approaching front and diurnal destabilization during the day on Saturday, and we can expect scattered to widespread showers and storms Saturday in the warm sector ahead of the front. As the front approaches, a decent amount of shower and storm activity is likely to persist Saturday night, and won`t truly start to clear the area until the front finally crosses late Saturday night into Sunday. SPC did put us into a Marginal severe risk for most of the area for Saturday and Saturday night, with Slight risk over some of our northwestern counties, but a lot of that may be conditional on some breaks in cloud cover to allow for areas of enhanced destabilization. If we can get sufficient CAPE for strong storms, areas further north look more likely to have sufficient shear to allow for more organized storms and better severe potential. Regardless of severe potential, deterministic data and ensemble means are still showing likely PWATs above 2.0 inches, so heavy rain can be expected and WPC maintained the marginal excessive rainfall risk for the area. It will remain hot and humid Saturday ahead of the front, though cloud cover and precip may limit temps a bit cooler than Friday`s highs. Dew points will remain well into the 60s and lower 70s in the warm sector, making for some very muggy and uncomfortable nights. Heat index values on Saturday will we in the mid to upper 90s across a broad swath of the lower elevations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... Any lingering showers should quickly dissipate or depart to the east Sunday evening and night, with drier air working into the area. The drier air and gentle N`ly flow behind the front may be enough to hold off fog across most of the area, despite the expected precip Saturday into Sunday, but patchy fog was put into some of the more protected valley locations where decoupling may be achieved. Regardless, Sunday night through Monday night look to be 36 hours of amazing weather considering we`ll be starting the month of July. We can expect dew points down into the 50s (40s on the higher ridges), with overnight lows in the 50s, and Monday`s highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s (60s in the mountains). However, the surface high slides off to the east by Tuesday, bring S`ly winds back into play, and with the upper-level ridge moving overhead, we`ll quickly return to some summertime heat and humidity. The area looks to remain dry on Tuesday under the crest of the upper-level ridge, but as that ridge starts to get suppressed southward by mid-week, shower and storm chances look to return to the CWA. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM Friday... Some valley fog across the mountain valleys may bring EKN down to IFR for mid morning, but the other sites may be left out at this time. During the rest of the period, VFR will remain the dominant flight category. During the afternoon a Cu field, above MVFR, should develop and there may be some isolated shower and storm potential, but this will be very isolated in nature, therefore left mention out of TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 06/28/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...JZ