021
FXUS61 KRLX 161729
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
129 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Extended heat wave builds today through next week amid mainly
dry weather courtesy of an upper level ridge. Chance for showers
or storms possible during the afternoon Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 845 AM Sunday...

Some of the CAMs are showing the potential for isolated showers
and thunderstorms to develop over portions of southern West
Virginia and southwest Virginia this afternoon. With MLCAPE
potentially reaching 1,500-2,000 J/kg and dew points in the
lower 70s in that area, we have added slight chances for pop up
showers and t-storms into the evening. With no upper-level
trigger or surface boundary, most should remain dry, but some
could have the potential to see a few downpours.

As of 150 AM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Although Heat Index values will likely remain below advisory
  criteria Sunday, the air will still feel uncomfortably hot and
  humid. Remember to practice heat safety!

Today will likely be the first of many above 90F for most
lowland locations, with forecast highs up to the mid-90s.
Compared to the next several days, dew points won`t be as bad
today, `only` in the mid-60s during the afternoon hours, so heat
index values aren`t forecast to crack the 100F advisory level.
The Excessive Heat Watch will remain in effect for now, for the
potential need for a warning or advisory on any or multiple days
this week.

Aside from the heat, we look to be dry under mostly clear skies
today and tonight, with just some thin high clouds expected over
the area. Gentle S`ly breezes develop today, with a few gusts
possible, before calming down again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 113 PM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Excessive Heat Watch continues Tuesday through Friday.

For Tuesday, broad upper level high pressure overhead will block any
shortwave energy to move over our area, providing mostly clear
skies through the period. At the surface, high pressure to our
east maintains southwest flow, which continues to bring
moisture and warm air advection to the area on Tuesday. The
moisture, with temperatures rising into the mid 90s, will
produce strong bouyancy. Dewpoints in the lower 70s, PWATs
around 1.8 inches, under high CAPE; low shear environment will
support isolated pulse thunderstorms, some with strong updrafts
Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, locally heavy downpours can be
expected Tuesday afternoon. Models that bring precipitation on
Tuesday are the NAM, RAP13 and GFS. Any convection that manage
to develop will quickly dissipate by sunset. Added PoPs and
thunderstorms to the forecast for Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Under mostly clear skies, outside afternoon showers or storms, highs
on Tuesday are expected to rise into the mid 90s. With dewpoints in
the lower 70s, heat index values will reach the triple digits
at some spots across the lowlands. Therefore, an Excessive Heat
Watch remains in effect. It is anticipated that a Heat Advisory
will be required for Tuesday at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Excessive Heat Watch continues through Friday.

Persisting high pressure will remain in control Wednesday through
Friday, continuing with dry and hot weather. High pressure
eventually loosens its influence over the area and begins to recede
south next weekend, bringing chance for precipitation over the
weekend.

Daily high temperatures across the lowlands will increase from the
mid 90s on Wednesday, into the upper 90s by Friday. Over the
mountains, highs should be from the mid 80s to low 90s. Meanwhile,
heat index values are expected to climb into the upper 90s to low
100s for the lowlands again Wednesday through Friday afternoon.
Additional Heat headlines will be required through this period.

As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions and calm winds or gentle breezes are expected
through the TAF period. A few gusts in the mountains could be up
to 15 knots or so this afternoon.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None anticipated.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 126 PM Sunday...

A prolonged heat wave builds across the area through next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some
locations on several days. The records for Sunday, June 16 to
Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites,
along with the current forecast values.

          Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
       Sunday, 6/16  |   Monday, 6/17 |  Tuesday, 6/18 |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 93 / 97 (1952) | 91 / 98 (1936) | 93 / 98 (1944) |
HTS | 91 / 97 (1952) | 92 /100 (1936) | 94 / 98 (1944) |
CKB | 89 / 95 (2022) | 91 / 96 (1967) | 93 / 96 (1936) |
PKB | 91 / 97 (1952) | 93 / 98 (1936) | 94 / 98 (1944) |
BKW | 86 / 93 (1952) | 85 / 93 (1936) | 88 / 93 (1936) |
EKN | 86 / 93 (1952) | 89 / 92 (1936) | 90 / 91 (1994) |
--------------------------------------------------------
     Wednesday, 6/19 | Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 94 / 98 (1919) | 95 / 99 (1931) | 96 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 95 / 98 (1994) | 96 /100 (1931) | 98 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 95 / 94 (1994) | 95 / 94 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 96 / 95 (1994) | 97 / 97 (1931) | 98 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 87 / 90 (1944) | 88 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 92 / 89 (1905) | 93 / 92 (1931) | 93 / 92 (1953) |
--------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave
versus the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |    97      |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |    97      |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |    96      |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |    98      |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |    90      |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |    93      |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-521.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/JMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...FK

CLIMATE...