Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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958 FXUS61 KRLX 240627 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 227 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms before exiting east early this morning. More seasonable air Monday. Another cold front Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1003 PM Sunday... Cold front, currently transversing the area, will continue to spread isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves east overnight. Low level flow will be enough to prevent widespread fog, but expecting low stratus to develop overnight into Monday morning. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 215 PM Sunday... After an initial band of showers fell apart as it entered the area this morning, a new band of showers fired up just west of, and slicing into northwest portions of, the forecast area early this afternoon, ahead of a cold front and beneath a broad, loosely defined mid level short wave trough. While there is limited opportunity for surface heating due to cloud cover, temperatures were off to a high start this morning, and were already at or near convective temperatures, in the mid to upper 80s, across much of the middle Ohio valley. SPC analysis showed modest CAPE of under a KJ/kg over much of the forecast area, but as high as 1.5 KJ/kg along the western flank, and 2 KJ/kg just upstream, where the convection was starting to fire up. This and deep layer bulk shear to 30 kts or so should be just enough for strong to marginally severe thunderstorm wind gusts, especially in clusters or short line segments. SPC has maintained the slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the middle Ohio Valley, with a marginal risk elsewhere. While rainfall rates have not been high at all yet, PW values in the 1.75 to 2 inch range should lead to heavy downpours as storms intensify this afternoon. WPC continues the marginal risk for locally excessive rainfall for the area. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease in intensity and coverage as they move east across the mountains tonight. Once the cold front crosses, low clouds may form, mainly in and near the mountains, but there should be enough gradient low level flow to keep fog formation limited, and the clouds will mix into an afternoon cumulus field atop the deepening mixing layer on Monday. After a warm evening ahead of the front, save for wet-bulb cooling, lows Monday morning will be perceptibly lower across northwest portions of the forecast area, and slightly lower southeast, compared with this notably warm morning. Monday brings relief from the heat with highs down around normal. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 AM Monday... A high pressure system will provide dry weather on Tuesday, with temperatures climbing back above normal for this time of year. A cold front and an upper level trough will then bring showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday. Some models are indicating at least 2 rounds of showers and thunderstorms with this system. Models do have differences on prefrontal energy and precipitation. The cold front should push through late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some models indicate enough remaining moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday. More seasonable temperatures will return again for Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225 AM Monday... With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday, temperatures will again climb back above normal for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are once again possible, although most of the region will remain dry. A southerly wind flow and an approaching from will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through on Sunday, although there are differences in timing between the models. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 108 AM Monday... A few showers, some with lightning, remain across the mountains as a cold front moves through the area this morning. Allowed TEMPO for SHRA or VCSH/VCTS to sites where appropriate. Most of the activity will remain across the mountains for the remainder of the morning. MVFR stratocu and some patchy fog will likely develop along the eastern mountains and western foothills this morning as showers taper off and cooler temperatures filter in behind FROPA. Some models and current obs suggest MVFR or IFR stratocu will form elsewhere this morning as winds slack off, but NW flow picking up later this morning should impeded this from occurring. VFR will take back over by late morning/early afternoon for most locations as clouds clear. Winds will be WNW and light with FROPA, becoming variable and light to calm behind it. Light winds pick up with a NW`rly direction by daybreak, then shift out of the NE this evening into tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms ending may vary from forecast. There is a chance that IFR/MVFR stratocu or fog formation is more widespread than advertised this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 06/24/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L H H M H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR restrictions possible in fog early Tuesday morning. Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...LTC