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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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618 FXUS63 KSGF 282315 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible (30-70% chance) tonight into Saturday morning north of I-44. High winds and large hail will be the main concerns, but confidence is limited and coverage may be sparse. - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Ozarks from 10am through 8 pm tomorrow with Heat Index values between 103 and 110 across the region. - Additional rainfall Saturday night into Sunday morning. - A break from the heat Sunday with additional rain chances early, but a quick return to hot and humid conditions early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Residual shower activity, some of which may not be reaching the ground, from overnight convection in Kansas was moving across the region this afternoon. The associated cloud cover was helping to limit the heat this afternoon. Most readings across the Ozarks were in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees or right around average for this time of year. An upper level wave, albeit weak, along with an inverted trough across the plains was helping to tighten the surface gradient this afternoon. This has allowed for gusty winds to develop with 20-30kt gusts measured at times. As the upper trough moves east overnight tonight it will begin to drag trough and attendant cold front across the plains towards the Ozarks. Looking at the synoptic pattern and output for CAMS for tonight into Saturday morning there is a potential for some strong to severe storms. The CAMS were either rather robust with convection or non-existent. In looking at the output, there is the possibility for wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to quarters in size where storms can take advantage of the instability in place (MLCAPE 2000-3000j/kg) however, lapse rates are modest and convergence is not really strong. The best potential loos to be across central Missouri, though if a cold pool develops or the system develops into an MCS it may make its way to the Arkansas State line, but question remain in this occurring. With that said there is a SPC Slight and Marginal risk across the northern portions of the Ozarks for tonight, after Midnight into Saturday. During the day Saturday temperatures are expected to climb into the middle to upper 90s with heat indicies in the 103 to 110 range thanks to strong warm air and moisture advection ahead of the cold front. This has resulted in a Heat Advisory being issued for all of the area from 10am through 8pm. With the heat and the vicinity of the front as it moves south, isolated showers or storms may develop during the day but coverage and confidence in this is limited. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The cold front will make its way through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning with the front and any attendant storms or rainfall moving south of the region by lunchtime. The cooler air moving into the region behind the front will bring a respite from the heat with high Sunday only in the lower to middle 80s. The break in the heat will be brief however as ridging returns and temperatures climbing rapidly into the 90s with heat indicies above 100 again by the middle of next week. If these trends continue, heat headlines may be needed again next week. Precipitation chances return mid- to late-week as another trough moves through behind the ridge. Hot an humid conditions are thus expected through next week and into the 4th of July with additional chances for showers and storms into the coming holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Storms are starting to develop across northeastern Kansas early this evening. Storm develop will continue to the east this evening into northwestern Missouri then this activity will start to push south overnight. There are still questions on how far south the activity will make tonight with the chances generally along and north of I-44 with the best chances north of Highway 54. Scattered showers will remain possible during the day on Saturday but coverage will overall be low. A front will move south into the area Saturday evening and night with additional shower and storm chances. Southerly winds will continue this evening and could be gusty at time. Winds will become more southwesterly to westerly on Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Record High Temperatures: July 2: KSGF: 100/1933 KJLN: 103/2011 July 3: KSGF: 98/2011 KJLN: 100/2011 Record Low Temperatures: July 1: KVIH: 56/1951 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 29: KSGF: 80/1936 July 2: KSGF: 76/1933 July 3: KSGF: 77/2018 July 4: KSGF: 78/1901 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Wise CLIMATE...Nelson