588
FXUS62 KTBW 280815
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
415 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Light S/SW flow in place this morning will become more SW and
increase to around 10 mph this afternoon. Morning showers are in
place across the coastal waters and onshore of the
Manatee/Sarasota/Charlotte coastline. Storms will increase in
coverage across the area through the late morning and afternoon
and pushing to the east coast around sunset. Highs this afternoon
in the lower to mid 90s with HIs reaching 100-105, and lows
tonight in the mid 70s to around 80 at the coast. The high
pressure ridge axis is starting to lift north today and will be in
place across the area through the weekend and into next week as a
frontal boundary settles across the northern FL border and
dissipates through mid- week. With the ridge axis meandering
across the area through this period, winds will generally be
light, with generally SE flow but afternoon sea breezes really
dominating the flow. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
be possible each day, and temperatures will remain in the lower
to mid 90s for highs with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon
heat indices reaching 100-105 each day as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

S/SW flow will be in place across the terminals through the
period, with light flow this morning increasing to around 8kts in
the afternoon, then becoming light again after 00Z. Some coastal
showers are already in place along the coastal northern terminals.
Activity will increase and push inland through the late morning
and afternoon, clearing the area generally around 00Z. VFR will
prevail, but MVFR to IFR possible in storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

High pressure ridge axis to the south of the area today lifts
north across the waters for the weekend and meanders across the
waters through the rest of the period. S/SW flow will be in place
today, then becoming more SE with winds turning onshore each
afternoon with the sea breeze. Scattered storms will be possible
each day, with winds and seas locally higher near them. Otherwise
no headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

No concerns as humidity remains high, with scattered to numerous
storms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  94  79 /  60  30  60  40
FMY  93  77  94  77 /  50  20  70  30
GIF  94  76  94  76 /  70  30  70  30
SRQ  92  78  95  77 /  50  20  60  40
BKV  93  75  94  75 /  60  30  60  40
SPG  91  81  92  80 /  60  30  60  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming