Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
602 FXUS62 KTBW 281128 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 728 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Light southwesterly flow for the area through tonight. Winds will increase slightly this afternoon, remaining below 10 knots. Coastal shower and storm activity this morning will move inland later this morning and afternoon. VFR conditions are expected with MVFR to IFR conditions possible in storms with decreased visibility and lower cigs. Light and variable winds overnight, turning southeast Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Light S/SW flow in place this morning will become more SW and increase to around 10 mph this afternoon. Morning showers are in place across the coastal waters and onshore of the Manatee/Sarasota/Charlotte coastline. Storms will increase in coverage across the area through the late morning and afternoon and pushing to the east coast around sunset. Highs this afternoon in the lower to mid 90s with HIs reaching 100-105, and lows tonight in the mid 70s to around 80 at the coast. The high pressure ridge axis is starting to lift north today and will be in place across the area through the weekend and into next week as a frontal boundary settles across the northern FL border and dissipates through mid- week. With the ridge axis meandering across the area through this period, winds will generally be light, with generally SE flow but afternoon sea breezes really dominating the flow. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each day, and temperatures will remain in the lower to mid 90s for highs with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon heat indices reaching 100-105 each day as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 79 94 79 / 60 30 60 40 FMY 93 77 94 77 / 50 20 70 30 GIF 94 76 94 76 / 70 30 70 30 SRQ 92 78 95 77 / 50 20 60 40 BKV 93 75 94 75 / 60 30 60 40 SPG 91 81 92 80 / 60 30 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...ADavis PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hubbard DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery