062
FXUS65 KTFX 281602
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1002 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.UPDATE...


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be a cool day for most areas, with a light rain and windy
conditions over the Plains of North Central MT this morning.
Warmer air starts to move back in tomorrow, while there will be
increasing chances for thunderstorms on Sunday, some of which
could be strong. Looking ahead to next week, afternoon
temperatures will generally be seasonable, with daily chances for
passing showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...

1000 AM: Pops across North-central and Central Montana were
increased and adjusted to better reflect current radar and hi-res
model trends. Minor changes were made to QPF, Sky, Temperatures,
Dewpoints, and Relative Humidity across North-central and Central
to better reflect current observations and trends. The rest of the
forecast is on track.


700 AM: Winds along the Hi-Line were quite strong overnight. They
will die down over the course of the next few hours. Winds in
Judith Basin and Fergus Counties are expected to increase this
morning as shown in probabilistic guidance and model soundings. As
a result a High Wind Warning was issued for the lower-elevation
locations of those areas through 6 pm tonight. -IG


&&

.AVIATION...
28/12Z TAF Period

Widespread light rain will continue to overspread the plains of
North Central Montana this morning. Expect periods of IFR to MVFR
conditions, with a few brief instances of LIFR conditions possible
as well at KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, and KLWT. Further south, clouds will
lower with just an isolated shower, resulting in mostly VFR to MVFR
conditions. In addition to the lowered vis and cigs, gusty winds are
expected area wide today, particularly at the North Central Montana
terminals where a few gusts to 50 kts are possible through 15z.
Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024/
Today through Saturday...An upper level low is rotating just north
of Havre early this morning. This is resulting in rain wrapping
around this upper level low and moving southward into North
Central MT. Expect the rainfall to be most widespread and steady
this morning over North Central MT, with some of the showers
making it as far south as the I-90 corridor from Butte to Bozeman
by this afternoon. Snow levels are around 7500 feet in Glacier
Park early this morning, thus some minor snow accumulations are
expected at ridge tops. Additionally, strong westerly winds are
affecting the Hi-line area this morning, with sustained winds near
40 mph and a few wind gusts around 60 mph. Since impacts are low
for this wind event, given the time of day and short duration of 1
to 3 hours, no high wind warning will be issued at this time.
However, an SPS was issued to highlight the conditions in the
affected area. This upper level low pulls to the east tonight,
resulting in drier air moving in for Saturday, along with a bit
warmer afternoon temperatures.

Sunday through Friday...A rather unsettled period of weather
conditions is expected for much of next week. On Sunday, the
airmass will be just unstable enough for a few strong
thunderstorms. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue almost daily next week, with the best chances later in
the week over North Central MT. Even though afternoon temperatures
will be seasonable, most days they will average just a few degrees
below normal. Additionally, the 4th of July is now looking to be
unsettled as well, with most areas having at least a 30 percent
chance for a passing shower/thunderstorm. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  42  75  51 /  80  10   0  10
CTB  61  42  71  51 /  90  10   0  10
HLN  68  46  83  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  68  41  81  51 /  10   0   0  10
WYS  67  34  79  44 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  69  39  82  50 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  63  42  73  52 /  80  10   0  10
LWT  56  38  71  47 /  70  20   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Fergus County
below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls