939
FXUS63 KTOP 071110
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
610 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms through the day today could
  produce locally heavy rainfall.

- Seasonable temperatures Monday-Thursday before warming up
  Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Broad troughing resides from the Rockies towards the Great Lakes
with zonal flow across the central Plains this morning. Several
perturbations are noted on water vapor imagery working through the
region: the first is pushing east into Missouri with another
following closely behind across western Kansas and Nebraska. In
between, the forecast area has been void of precipitation during the
overnight hours, but that will change as the second perturbation
progresses east this morning. The main short-term forecast challenge
is the coverage of showers and storms through the day. Modest ascent
will be in place from the passing shortwave and isentropic upglide
and is expected to generate scattered to widely scattered showers
and storms by mid-morning, continuing into the afternoon and
evening. The main axis of heavy rainfall is expected to be across
southwest and southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Even so, PWAT values
rise to 1.5-2" and an axis of higher theta-e advection sets up from
southern into east central Kansas, supporting heavy rainfall
with any storms. While widespread flooding issues are not
expected, a few local instances of flooding are possible if a
location experiences rounds of storms.

Precipitation winds down tonight into Monday before another
trough moves across the central Plains during the day Monday. A
few storms may develop (15-30%) along a stalled boundary in
east central Kansas Monday afternoon and evening. This wave
phases with remnants of Beryl Monday night into Tuesday with the
bulk of precipitation staying east of the forecast area. Some
showers or storms on the northwest periphery could (10-15%
chance) reach far eastern Kansas on Tuesday before the system
advances to the east. The pattern changes for the middle of the
week with a western ridge building east toward the Plains. Dry
and seasonable conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday
before the ridge moves further east, allowing heat and humidity
to build Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected with the main challenge being the
coverage of showers/storms through the day. Expecting isolated
to scattered SHRA/TS to develop this afternoon, but confidence
in direct impacts to terminals remains too low for inclusion.
Have maintained VCSH during the most likely period of storm
development. Winds will be light and variable in direction
through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan