Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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844 FXUS63 KTOP 252309 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 609 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory continues through 8pm this evening, with heat indices up to 109 degrees. - Thunderstorms are possible tonight, with highest confidence in eastern Kansas. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the storms. - Hot weather returns Friday, otherwise more seasonal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday through the weekend with mainly off and on storm chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A mid level shortwave was moving out of eastern Kansas and into Missouri per watervapor Satellite and VWP`s. Convection that had been associated with it along with clouds were moving off to the east into Missouri at 19Z. Clearing skies had allowed temperatures to warm back into the 90s and with dewpoint temps in the 070s most areas heat indices should rise to around 105 degrees. Will keep the Heat Advisory going through expiration at 8 PM CDT this evening. Subsidence in the wake of the wave will give a reprieve from convection until later this evening when storms are expected to form along a frontal boundary from Iowa into Nebraska. The short term models vary on timing and location of the more intense convection, but it continues to look like a line of storms will move south out of Nebraska and Iowa into Kansas and Missouri. The highest probability (40-50%) will remain generally across northeast and east central Kansas. Damaging winds will be the main hazard from these storms. Wednesday, in the wake of the storms, high pressure will build southward across the central Plains with northeasterly winds ushering in cooler temperatures. Highs Wednesday are expected to top out only in the 80s to near 90 with lower humidity no excessive heat indices are expected. Wednesday night upslope flow into the western high Plains and a mid level perturbation moving out of the Rockies will develop thunderstorms across the high Plains. These storms are expected to move eastward and weaken as they move into north central and central Kansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Models differ on location of any waves moving through the quasi zonal flow, but lean toward highest pops (50-60%) across north central Kansas Thursday morning where a 50kt low level jet will be focused as well as good moisture transport within the instability axis. Some strong wind gusts along with locally heavy rainfall and hail are expected with the storms. The heat returns on Friday as the thermal axis expands into northeast and east central Kansas. Highs top out in the 90s with dew points in the 70s will yield heat indices around 100 to 105 degrees in the afternoon hours. A mid level trough moving across the Plains Friday and Friday night will push a cold front southward with storms developing along the frontal boundary across Kansas and Missouri. There will remain some chances for storms depending on where the boundary ends up as well as any waves and return flow on the back side of the high for Sunday into Monday. Uncertainty remains medium with regards to precipitation chances Sunday through next Tuesday. Seasonal highs int he 80s are expected over the weekend, before warming back up into the 90s early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 TAFs this evening and overnight will mainly be impacted by thunderstorm potential moving south out of Nebraska, mainly for KTOP and KFOE. Outside any convection concerns that can develop this far west, Some marginal low-level turbulence can be expected within the lowest 3 kft as the LLJ increases overnight. Did not add mention of this in the TAFs as the surface winds will keep any wind shear concerns under 30 knots. Surface ridging builds in for the remainder of the period with light northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Record hot temperatures are possible Tuesday Record High Forecast High June 25 Topeka: 106 (1911) Topeka: 97 Concordia: 104 (1988) Concordia: 100 Record Highest Minimum Forecast Minimum June 25 Topeka: 82 (1911) Topeka: 79 Concordia: 80 (1952) Concordia: 78 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...Griesemer CLIMATE...Poage