723
FXUS65 KTWC 270830
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
130 AM MST Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough
moisture for a daily chance of thunderstorms. A few degrees
hotter today before storm chances increase over the weekend and
early next week. Some storms will generate strong winds and
locally heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Surface dewpoints are a few degrees with a few
locations dropping into the 50s as our deeper source for moisture
wanes for a few days and we rely on recycling boundary layer
moisture and modest outflows from complexes in northwest Sonora.
Precipitable water values remain above climo for late June,
generally ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 inches. Another day or two
where we see the bulk of our thunderstorm chances east and south
of Tucson.

The ridge will shift eastward over the weekend as a trough
develops near the west coast. As the high center reconsolidates
east of our area, it will bring the solid easterly to southerly
flow back and re-engage a fetch of deeper moisture to reinforce
what we`re working through now. Once feature in particular is the
potential of multiple easterly waves across northern Mexico with
the first shifting from Chihuahua to Sonora late in the weekend,
and another on a more southerly track across north central Mexico
early next week.

After that, ensemble means are suggesting strong positive height
anomalies in a blocking position across western portions of the
desert southwest the following weekend. Something like that would
push some of the moisture back south of the area. Not at all
unexpected as the monsoon comes in like a tide, with individual
waves that recede at times even as the overall trend is gradually
(usually) higher.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/12Z.
SCT 100-140 kft SCT-BKN 180-220 kft AGL thru the forecast period.
Isolated- scattered -TSRA 27/19Z thru 28/03Z with brief MFR
conditions possible near storms. SFC winds generally remain below
10 kts through the forecast period, except for gusty outflow winds
from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on
the higher side into next week, along with daily chances for
thunderstorms. Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some
storms to generate locally heavy rain. Winds should generally
remain below 15 mph each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20
mph are possible. Stronger erratic outflows with some
thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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