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FXUS65 KTWC 290941
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
241 AM MST Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will run above normal over the next
seven days as the calendar turns from May to June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed scattered high
clouds moving across the area. Should be out of the area by
sunrise leaving abundant sunshine for today. Slight thickness
falls will bring slightly cooler high temperatures today versus
Tuesday. Overall for the next 7 days, high temperatures will run
up to 4 degrees above normal as the calendar turns from May to
June.

Late in the weekend, ensembles showing a weak moisture starved upper
low developing to our SW which. Per ensembles this low will
retrograde west southwest next week and meander off the Baja coast
while high pressure amplifies over the state. At this time looking
at hotter temperatures and increased heat risk for the 2nd half
on next week into the 2nd weekend on June. What is uncertain is
with southerly flow between the low to our SW and the high to our
east, will there be an increase in moisture enough to get some
high based, mostly dry storms, developing over the mountains.
Ensembles have PW values late next week near normal to slightly
above normal. The 8-14 day precip outlook from CPC has the entire
area leaning above normal (40%-50%) for the June 5th to 11th
period. Remember that most of the areas daily rainfall normal is
less than three-hundredths of an inch. The extended period is
more interesting than the 7 day.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind
less than 10 kts and variable in direction thru 29/18Z and again aft
30/03Z. SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 11-17 kts and gusts to 18-27 kts
between 29/18Z and 30/03Z, with the strongest SFC wind southeast of
KTUS in the vicinity of KALK and KDUG. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 3-6 degrees above normal
through the upcoming weekend. Expect min RH values of 3-8 percent in
the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains the next 7
days, with poor overnight recoveries between 20-30 percent in most
locations. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns this
week, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong surface
heating. The strongest sustained 20-foot winds will generally be
across portions of Cochise County, where wind speeds will be in the
15-20 mph range, with some gusts to around 30 mph for a couple of
hours during the mid to late afternoon hours.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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