809
FXUS65 KTWC 082041
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
141 PM MST Sun Sep 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through
the work week as mostly dry weather continues. Cooler temperatures
next weekend as precipitation chances return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Easterly breezes continue this afternoon across SE
Arizona. Dry conditions east of Tucson with PWAT values ranging from
0.5" to 0.75". Locales west of Tucson have a bit more moisture with
PWAT`s up near 1 inch across central and western Pima County.
Currently seeing some cloud build-ups near and to the south of Sells
with a few light showers. This remains the favored area for some
isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon. Activity
will quickly diminish early this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail with near normal
temperatures eastern areas and above normal temperatures this
afternoon from Tucson westward.

Ridging aloft will tend to dominate our weather the first half of
the work week, later replaced by west to southwest flow as broad
troughing dominates the western CONUS. This will result in dry
conditions through the work week with above normal temperatures.
Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will peak at about 4 to 8 degrees
above normal from Tucson westward and about 2 to 5 degrees above
normal south and east of Tucson.

By the end of the work week and for the upcoming weekend, we`re
keeping a close eye on the tropics. Southerly flow will allow deeper
moisture to push north across Sonora and into Arizona by Saturday
and Sunday. Still considerable uncertainty in the specifics of the
pattern and how much moisture we`ll get. For now, the general idea
of cooler temperatures with precipitation chances returning next
weekend is the main message.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 10/00Z.
SKC-SCT clouds at or above 10k ft AGL most locales through the
forecast period. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 10k ft AGL west of KTUS this
afternoon with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA thru about 09/01Z. SFC winds
E/SE 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers west to southwest of Tucson this
afternoon otherwise dry for the work week. Minimum RH values below
15 percent at times in lower elevations. East winds 10 to 20 mph
through Monday then becoming diurnally driven for the remainder of
the work week. Moisture and precipitation chances return for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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