Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 022029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
129 PM MST Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon and evening through the 4th of July. Then Tuesday through
Friday the storms should be more isolated and mainly limited to
areas near the Mexico and New Mexico borders with afternoon
temperatures gradually warming.


.DISCUSSION...Storms developed a bit early today but in the expected
locations. Plenty of moisture and instability to work with so we will
need to keep an eye out for flooding potential. Rain rates are pretty
decent on the rain gages that have been hit. Activity will continue
into the evening hours as usual with a slow winding down thereafter.
Sunday we will likely be looking at the threat of storms across a
similar area, Tucson east and south with some potential for a bit
more coverage. For the 4th, models are suggesting a wave will roll
northward across the area in the southerly flow over the region.
There are timing differences which will have a significant impact on
the convective potential. For now boosted given POPs just a bit for
the 4th.

Tuesday through at least Thursday, the air mass dries out a bit with
PWs dropping to around an inch or a bit less at times. While this is
just about average for the first week of July, it is less than what
we have been enjoying. Therefore would expect a downtrend in the
convective activity through this period. The other side effect of a
bit less moisture will be increasing heat with afternoon temperatures
expected to climb back up to average then likely a few degrees above
average by Friday. Beyond Friday the moisture looks to be on a
gradual upswing again as there may be an easterly wave sliding by
with the center of the upper level ridge migrating to the Four-
Corners area.


.AVIATION...Valid through 04/00Z.
SCT SHRA/TSRA will be possible between 02/20z-03/02z at KTUS and
KOLS. Strong, erratic winds with gusts in excess of 35 kts and cigs
dropping to  6k-8k ft are possible with TSRA and +SHRA. Otherwise,
SCT-BKN clouds at 10k-15k ft with FEW down to 7k-9k ft are expected
with winds remaining near 10 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the next
several days keeping RH values well above critical thresholds.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and
evening, potentially lingering into the late night hours some nights.
Any storms will carry the threats of lightning, strong wind gusts
and localized flooding.




Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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