Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 232131
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
231 PM MST Wed Oct 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions into early next week. Expect above
average high temperatures through Thursday, then cooler
temperatures Friday, especially east of Tucson. Warmer
temperatures will return this weekend. Our first widespread
freezing temperatures may occur in colder eastern valleys Friday
night into Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunny skies with daytime temperatures in the 70s
east of Tucson and 80s in the Tucson Metro. A little smoke from
prescribed fires in Apache County are moving across northern
sections of Graham and Greenlee Counties this afternoon. Should
remain elevated and disperse by tonight.

Main story for the next few days will be developing gusty
east/southeast winds Thursday evening through Friday morning and a
more widespread freeze possible Saturday morning for areas south
and east of Tucson.

The winds will be strongest in the early morning hours, especially
for portions of Santa Cruz and eastern Pima Counties. Sustained
winds of 18 to 28 mph with gusts around 35 mph are likely. A few
areas may see slightly higher winds approaching 40 mph. Winds will
gradually diminish through Friday morning and into the afternoon.

After the gusty winds, our attention turns to a more widespread
freeze. Looking at current trends and what we have already seen
this year, decided to hedge toward the lowest guidance. Used the
downscaled GFS ensemble heavily, thus lowering temps below the
NBM and guidance consensus. This will likely put the usual cold
spots in the Sulphur Springs and San pedro Valleys in the upper
20s with widespread lower to middle 30s across most of Cochise
County and even portions of Santa Cruz Counties.

The weekend looks warm before another system drops temps back
into the 70s/80s for early next week. There is still quite a bit
of uncertainty with this system, however confidence is increasing
in breezy winds and much cooler temps. At this time, any precip
looks to stay north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
Clear skies and SFC wind variable in direction under 12 kts thru
this forecast cycle. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected through the middle
of next week. Daytime temperatures will be above normal through
Thursday, below normal on Friday, rebounding to near normal into
early next week. Except for Thursday evening through Saturday
morning, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and mainly less than
15 mph.

Strong and gusty east to southeast winds will develop Thursday
evening and persist into Saturday morning, with the strongest wind
speeds occurring Thursday night through Friday morning. These
easterly winds will generally be at 15-20 mph across much of
southeast Arizona, but stronger wind speeds are expected across
northern Santa Cruz and eastern Pima counties where sustained wind
speeds could reach 25-30 mph. At this time, it appears relative
humidity values will be in the 18-26 percent range when the
strongest winds occur around or shortly after sunrise Friday
morning. However, be prepared for these strong and gusty east to
southeast winds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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