Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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433 FXUS63 KUNR 242312 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 512 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue through mid-week. - Daily isolated storms possible through mid-week, with limited moisture and a chance for severe. - More active weather towards the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Current surface analysis shows the low over eastern SD, with a weak cold front stretching into southwestern SD. Water Vapor and upper air models show near zonal flow over the forecast area today. Temperatures currently sit in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the region this afternoon. Frontal boundary is expected to stall around the NE/SD border later this afternoon. With the better forcing over that area, could see some storm development late afternoon early evening timeframe. Plenty of CAPE and modest shear, however a strong cap is expected to limit storm development. Any storms that are able to develop, should have supercell potential with severe hail/wind threats. Main timing for severe potential looks to be around 6 to 10 pm MDT. Some modest 850mb theta-e lingering on could allow for showers/storms to continue into the overnight hours, however severe threat is not expected with any nocturnal storms. Similar pattern continues for Tuesday, though with the lack of forcing mechanism that exists over southern SD today. Cannot rule out some daytime heating or Black Hills upslope convection, with an isolated severe storm or two possible. A mid-level wave passing through on Wednesday will continue our chances for daily storms, but lack of moisture continues until later towards the weekend. Mild upper ridge slides over the Rockies and into the northern/central plains Wednesday into Thursday, followed by an upper trough moving across southern Canada later Thursday into the weekend, bringing increasing chances for storms with more available moisture. Cooler temperatures move in as well, though still at or just below normal for this time of year. Models show upper ridge building back in early next week, with a return to above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 511 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms (with gusty erratic winds, small hail) are possible through 05z, mainly over southwestern SD. Isolated thunderstorms are possible the rest of the night. Except for any brief MVFR conditions in storms, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Helgeson