-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
630
FXUS61 KCLE 280557
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
157 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit east of the area this evening. Another
cold front will move across the area on Tuesday. High pressure
will build from the northwest, starting on Wednesday and become
centered over the Great Lakes for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:30 AM Update...
Increased PoPs near the lakeshore east of Cleveland through NW
PA overnight to account for showers expanding in Lower Michigan
and southern Ontario. These should begin to spill across the
lake over the next few hours. The rest of the forecast remains
on track.

8:10 PM Update:
Showers and thunderstorms along the cold front have exited east.
Still some 30-40 MPH wind gusts across our eastern counties,
though these are on their way down and will continue decreasing
tonight. Just minor tweaks to the forecast through the overnight
to account for recent trends / observations. Did not alter POPs
much on Tuesday though did attempt to time a subtle surface
trough that will drop across the area during the late morning
and afternoon for a brief window of higher POPs. This did
briefly introduce likely wording for showers across more of
interior Ohio, with likely wording being retained from far
Northeast OH into Northwest PA where it was already in. With
chilly air aloft heating from the very strong late May sun will
lead to modest instability by Tuesday afternoon. This will
likely lead to a few thunderstorms developing among the showers.
The chilly air aloft could encourage a bit of small hail and
gusty (but sub-severe) winds with a couple of the storms.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front stretches from Cleveland to Mount Gilead and will
push east through the afternoon hours and out of the forecast
area by this evening. Some showers and an isolated storm or two
are developing ahead of the front in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest PA and will be a short term threat for brief heavy
rain and perhaps a stronger wind gust. With the strong wind
field in place across the region, it may not be that difficult
to get a quick burst of wind with these small showers and
storms. Otherwise, there will be wind gusts to 40-45 mph through
this evening with the cold front as some stronger synoptic
winds are being brought to the surface. Behind the front, low
clouds will enter the region as the surface low occludes and
moves northeast into Canada. Overall, the area should be dry
tonight behind the frontal passage, but some weak convergence
and residual moisture into NW PA may allow for some minor rain
chances.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, an upper trough will dig into the
Great Lakes region with a pair of shortwaves that will ripple
through the trough and enhance the flow. Another cold front will
move through the area on Tuesday with the upper trough and
scattered rain showers and perhaps some marginal thunder will be
possible on Tuesday. PoPs are fairly generic on Tuesday with
both the scattered nature of showers and not much to key in on
for specific timing at this time. Have PoPs increasing to likely
on Tuesday night with the main trough axis and cold front
pushing through, which should allow for a window that is more
favorable for rain. Temperatures through the period will be
cooler than normal with clouds and several shots of rain
preventing much heating with a cold air advection pattern. Lows
will be in the 50s tonight and Tuesday night and highs on
Tuesday will likely not reach 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another upper level wave of low pressure rotates through the Great
Lakes from the northwest with an accompanying surface low and cold
front Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours. Tracking a main
band of low/mid level f-gen with this system moving through the
area. Not a ton of instability with this, but thunderstorms will be
possible, and only expecting general thunder at this time. Cold
front south of the CWA by 00Z Thursday. Another axis drops into the
area Wednesday night, but dry with mid/upper level drying in the
wake of the previous axis. Upper low finally exits Thursday/Thursday
night as surface high pressure builds in simultaneously. The upper
trough axes and the Canadian high pressure system brings with them a
cooler airmass into the region, and most locations for the short
term forecast period will not be able to reach the 70F mark,
although low 70s could sneak into the NW OH zones Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure drifts southeastward allowing for return flow to the
region and gradual warming into the long term period. Ridging aloft
gives way to a more zonal flow pattern into the weekend, and
slightly more unsettled conditions. Lots of spread in the details
for now, but could see a late Saturday/Saturday night upper trough
axis, followed by influences from a developing lee side low pressure
system with a possible warm frontal interaction for our area. POPs
on the gradual increase during this period, and by the end of the
weekend, likely back to near 80F or into the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Lower cigs, mainly MVFR, will move into NE Ohio and NW PA early
this morning affecting KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI along with
scattered showers toward sunrise. Otherwise, VFR will prevail
until after sunrise in all areas. The forecast gets less certain
from mid morning through the afternoon as daytime heating
combined with a shortwave trough generates fairly widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms. The greatest coverage will
be in interior NE Ohio and NW PA, but all areas will see off and
on precip with cigs and vis occasionally dipping to MVFR or
lower in the heaviest showers/storms. VFR will prevail outside
of the precip, but timing of the precip is low confidence since
it will still be scattered in nature despite being fairly
widespread. Coverage of precip will diminish this evening
before another wave moves through tonight bringing additional
showers and occasional drops in cigs/vis.

WSW winds of 10-20 knots early this morning will turn more W to
NW from mid morning through the afternoon with speeds staying in
the 10-20 knot range. Occasionally higher gusts will occur this
afternoon.

Outlook...Periodic Non-VFR conditions may exist in scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Expecting an increase in wind speeds behind a cold front sweeping
across Lake Erie out of the west at 20kts gusting to 30kts through
the evening and tonight. Water levels could drop significantly in
the western basin for a brief period of time, and have a Low Water
Advisory in place as a result. Also in place is a Small Craft
Advisory for these winds as well as wave heights 4-6ft in the
nearshore zones. Winds to ease Tuesday, but will become
northwesterly, so portions of the SCA will remain until the winds
fall below 10kts Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. The onshore flow
will be reinforced Wednesday with another cold front with winds back
to around 15-20kts, easing through the end of the week. Likely not
going to get out of the onshore wind regime until Friday as high
pressure over the area finally moves overhead and to the southeast
next weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     OHZ003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for OHZ009-010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144-
     145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Sefcovic/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...26