-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
941
FXUS63 KJKL 211951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
351 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potential for showers and thunderstorms returns today and then
  persists for much of next week.

- High temperatures will approach 90 degrees through the weekend,
  then trend lower as time goes by during the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024

Quick update, mainly to increase for PoPs with area of convection
firing across the heart of the CWA. Tweaked hourly grids to try
and capture some of the hourly cooling that is expected with rain
cooled conditions across our central and southeastern zones.
Updated forecast products have been issued.

UPDATE Issued at 1143 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024

Showers/thunderstorms have been fairly extensive over the northern
portion of the area this morning, and the POP has been raised to
account for the trends. Still looking for development further
south with time, but coverage remains uncertain. Precip and extensive
clouds will likely hold temperatures down, and have lowered the
max T forecast a bit, especially in the north.

UPDATE Issued at 858 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024

Scattered showers/thunderstorms have developed largely as expected
and are arriving from the west. Have fined tuned the very near
term forecast based on latest trends, but with little impact on
the overall outlook for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 442 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024

A weak cold front runs from northwest OH through southern IL early
this morning. Beneath meager west northwest flow aloft, it is
running out of momentum and is only expected to get as far as the
Ohio river or slightly into KY before it stalls. Weak moisture
advection ahead of the front will bring modest instability
today-- elevated at first, but becoming surface based with daytime
heating. Despite little support aloft, the front and the
instability could be enough to bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Any activity should die out this evening.
Depending on the progress of the front, drier air may try to nudge
into our area from the north tonight and early Sunday.

An upper low currently over AZ will move east northeast and meet
with a northern stream upper trough progressing eastward across
the north central CONUS on Sunday. This will strengthen our flow
aloft and support another cold front which will approach from the
Midwest. What`s left of the first frontal boundary lifts to the
northeast as a warm front ahead of the next cold front. This could
bring us a few showers or storms, especially late in the day
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024

The latest model runs are showing pretty much the same pattern in
the extended as the previous few days. A trough of low pressure over
the central Plains will be our primary weather maker to begin the
upcoming work week. Another trough of low pressure is forecast to
intensify over south central Canada and move north, with a cold
front extending southward from it to the central Plains trough. The
Plains trough and cold front will move through our region Monday and
Tuesday and will bring showers and a few storms to eastern Kentucky
to begin the week. Another more developed trough is expected to form
over the northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system
is forecast to move slowly eastward into the central Mississippi
Valley and western Tennessee Valley by mid-week. This system will
likely bring another round of showers and storms to our area, along
with cooler temperatures, Wednesday and Thursday. The wild card in
this scenario will be whether or not a tropical system forms over
the Gulf of Mexico. The latest runs of the GFS and GFS Ensembles
have a tc forming over the southwestern Gulf and moving northward
toward the central Gulf Coast Thursday and Thursday night. If this
tropical system does form, its evolution and track will have a
degree of influence on the second Plains trough. For now, we will go
with the general pattern the models are showing, with repeated
rounds of showers and storms moving through eastern Kentucky Monday
through Wednesday, with the rain quickly tapering off to isolated
showers and storms by the end of the week, but having the rain
persist through Friday night.

After a day of slightly warmer than normal temperatures across the
area on Monday, the passing troughs, and their associated widespread
cloud cover and rain, along with winds shifting to the west or
north, will lead to below normal temperatures in the 70s for the
rest of the week past Monday. The overall pattern looks to be
chances of rain each day in the extended, with generally cooler than
normal temperatures, especially during the daytime periods. The only
weather hazard of note will be any cloud to ground lightning
associated with some thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024

Showers and thunderstorms firing across central and eastern
portions of eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Difficult to capture
where strongest convection is at over the next few hours as storms
do not appear to have a long life cycle. Once this area of
precipitation exits the area, flight conditions should improve
through the remainder of the late afternoon and early evening.
Suspect some terminals that realized rain over the next few hours
may have to deal with some fog at times through the evening. Will
be watching for that potential. Otherwise, in general winds will
be light, around 5 kts or less and variable through the period,
though they could be gusty to around 15-20 kts in the vicinity of
the strongest thunderstorms over the next three hours or so.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY