Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --578 FXUS61 KLWX 150725 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 325 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend, then move offshore next week. A warm front will lift through the region early in the week, ushering in a prolonged period of hot weather.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Early morning observations reveal areas of fog (some dense) mainly in river valleys that received appreciable rainfall over western Maryland and eastern West Virginia. Further east and south, fog is a bit more patchy but still dense in spots. Fog should burn off and lift by mid morning. A mainly sunny sky is expected today as northerly breezes usher in dry and seasonable air. The wind should go light to calm tonight, allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s and 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure overhead Sunday will gradually shift offshore through Monday as heights build aloft and a warm front crosses from southwest to northeast. This warm front will usher in a prolonged period of hot weather for next week. Temperatures Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday with perhaps a touch more humidity and a pop up shower or two near the Appalachians during the afternoon. Temperatures and humidity will continue to increase Sunday night into Monday. After a start in the 60s, temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 90s for most. When combined with the modest increase in humidity, heat index values of 95 to near 100 are possible. A pop up shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out near the Appalachians during the afternoon, but most of the time will be dry. Monday night will continue the warming trend with lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s expected.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --A highly anomalous (2-3 sigma) upper level ridge will build over the Eastern US next week, with 500 hPa heights reaching just shy of 600 decameters. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain in place at the surface just offshore. This will maintain light south to southeasterly flow over the course of the week. Such a combination will lead to a prolonged stretch of hot conditions. Temperatures should reach into the mid 90s each day, with upper 90s possible by the end of the week. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints will be seasonable (in the mid 60s), which will make it feel a bit humid as well. A prolonged period of dry conditions is expected for most, although a stray popup afternoon thunderstorm can`t be ruled out over the higher terrain.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Some IFR fog may encroach upon MRB around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated through Monday night. Wind direction was a bit erratic early this morning but generally out of the W/NW behind a departing cold front. N/NW winds will increase after 10Z or so to 8-12 kts with gusts of 17-22 kts through about 16-18Z before decreasing gradually through the remainder of the day. Light NE flow is expected tonight, with E to SE flow Sunday through Monday night. A few gusts to around 15 kts are possible Sunday and Monday afternoons. Dry weather is expected through at least Monday night at the TAF sites, though a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible to the west toward the Appalachians Sunday and Monday afternoons. VFR conditions and southeasterly winds are expected at the terminals on both Tuesday and Wednesday-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --N/NW wind gusts of 20-25 knots are expected this morning into possibly early this afternoon in the wake of a departing cold front. Winds will become lighter and then NE by tonight, then E to SE Sunday through Monday night. Dry weather is expected, though gusts of 15-25 knots are possible during the late afternoon and evening hours, especially Monday. Sub-SCA southeasterly winds are expected over the waters on both Tuesday and Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CLIMATE...-- Changed Discussion --Hot temperatures are expected next week. Below is a list of record high temperatures for June 17th, 18th, 19th, and the 20th, the year the record was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for those days. RERs are currently only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference. Monday Jun 17th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2022) 92F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 96F (2022) 92F Baltimore (BWI) 96F (2022+) 91F Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1939+) 93F Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (2022) 92F Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1939) 87F Hagerstown (HGR) 96F (1952) 93F Tuesday Jun 18th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 97F (1944) 95F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 94F (2018+) 95F Baltimore (BWI) 97F (1957+) 93F Martinsburg (MRB) 99F (1943) 94F Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (2014+) 95F Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1957) 89F Hagerstown (HGR) 95F (1957) 96F Wednesday Jun 19th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 99F (1994) 94F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1994) 95F Baltimore (BWI) 99F (1994) 92F Martinsburg (MRB) 96F (1994+) 93F Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (2018) 94F Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1993) 88F Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1994) 95F Thursday Jun 20th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 99F (1931) 94F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 97F (1964) 94F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (1931) 93F Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1931) 93F Charlottesville (CHO) 98F (1933) 94F Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1988) 89F Hagerstown (HGR) 98F (1931) 94F Friday Jun 21st Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2012) 97F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1988) 97F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (2012+) 95F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1931) 95F Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1933) 96F Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1988) 92F Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1923) 97F + indicates that value has been reached on multiple years, with the year displayed being the most recent.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --DC...None. MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ501-502. VA...None. WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for WVZ050-051-055-502>506. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>541. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ533- 534-537-542-543.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DHOF NEAR TERM...DHOF SHORT TERM...DHOF LONG TERM...KJP AVIATION...DHOF/KJP MARINE...DHOF/KJP CLIMATE...LWX