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385
FXUS61 KRLX 202327
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
727 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues through the week courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into
Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 725 PM Thursday...

Radar and satellite imagery show the area free of convection.
Only few upper level clouds passing east this afternoon.
Previous forecast remains on track.

As of 1209 PM Thursday...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control through
Friday, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and
storms during peak heating hours. Bulk of any convective activity
today should largely be confined to the mountains, but a better
chance will exist on Friday, with a slight uptick in instability
and moisture expected. As with previous days, bulk of any
convection that is able to get going will dissipate with loss of
heating, and storms will be slow to move, and contain brief
heavy downpours.

After some patchy valley fog Friday morning, temperatures Friday
afternoon will tick a few degrees higher.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 113 PM Thursday...

The hot and humid weather will continue on Saturday as the upper-
level ridge remains over the East. Expect air temperatures to reach
the middle 90s across the lowlands and the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the mountains. With dew point temperatures expected to be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, it will once again `feel like` the lower
100s for many. The chance of an isolated pop-up shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the afternoon as the heat
bubbles up.

Sunday will be another hot day, but perhaps not as hot as Saturday.
High clouds will roll in from the northwest Sunday morning as a cold
front slowly approaches from the Midwest and Great Lakes. More
clouds than sun is expected by the afternoon, and most places will
see chances of thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon and evening.
The cold front will likely swing through overnight Sunday night,
with precipitation chances increasing to 50-70% areawide. Heavy
downpours are possible, as PWATS are projected to be anywhere from
1.5-2.0 inches areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 113 PM Thursday...

In the wake of the cold front, Monday will finally be a break from
the intense heat. Many of the lowlands spots will see highs in the
upper 80s with slightly lower humidity, thanks to a northwest wind
in a postfrontal airmass. Unfortunately, this isn`t going to last
very long because models are showing another ridge building in from
the west by Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures rebounding into
the middle 90s across the lowlands again. Chances of rain may return
again next Wednesday as another front approaches from the west. Next
Thursday is expected to be cooler again in the wake of a front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 725 PM Thursday...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The
exception will be IFR conditions under IFR/LIFR dense fog at EKN
from 08Z to 12Z Friday morning. Any fog will quickly dissipate by 12-
13Z. VFR conditions will prevail on Friday under light southwest
flow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of fog tonight may vary from
the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ