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325
FXUS61 KRLX 230011
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
811 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues into Sunday, courtesy of a broad upper
level ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night, with showers
and storms ahead of it, and then an end to the heat wave.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 808 PM Saturday...

Surface observations show heat index values across the lowlands
in the lower 90s at this time. Therefore, the heat advisory was
allowed to expired at 8 PM. Temperatures will continue to
subside tonight. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 140 PM Saturday...

Hot and humid weather will continue today with little relief
expected overnight. A cold front will approach from the west
Sunday, and ahead of it, clouds will approach from the northwest
and winds will become breezier out of the southwest.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening
ahead of the front. Areas along and north of the Ohio River are
positioned in a slight risk for severe weather with the rest of
the area placed in a marginal risk for severe weather. The
excessive rainfall risk will be marginal Sunday, but because of
how dry the ground has been lately, flooding can be avoided if
thunderstorms move quickly enough. However, training
thunderstorms can still produce localized flooding.

Reviewing the severe risk, LCLs are expected to be around 1,500
meters and 0-6km bulk shear will only be at 20-25 knots.
Therefore, tornadoes are not much of a concern. A quick spin up
cannot be ruled out, mainly across northern WV or southeast OH
in more favorable wind shear. Freezing levels will be anywhere
from 15,000-16,000 feet AGL, and few storms could potentially
grow tall enough to produce marginally severe hail. We believe
the main concern will be isolated damaging wind gusts with any
storms late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

The severe threat ahead of the cold front tapers Sunday night
with the loss of heating after sunset. However, there could
still be a strong to marginally severe wind threat as
thunderstorms move into and through the mountains, especially
if they are able to organize into lines or line segments amid
modest 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30 knots.

The heavy rainfall threat also wanes Sunday night, as mid level
drying crashes PW values even ahead of the actual surface
frontal passage.

High pressure builds into the area Monday afternoon and will
provide a clear, calm and comfortably cool night Monday night.
With the rain 24 hours earlier, fog is likely to form overnight,
at least in the valleys.

Central guidance temperatures reflect the end of the heat wave,
with highs down near normal on Monday. Lows Monday morning
will be perceptibly lower across northwest portions of the
forecast area, slightly lower southeast, compared with Sunday
morning. Lows Tuesday morning will be noticeably lower than
recent nights throughout the area, and a bit lower in the
valleys compared with central guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

High pressure provides dry weather most, if not all, of the day
Tuesday.

With the upper level ridge associated with the current heat
wave shunted off to the deep south/southwestern U.S. next week,
west to northwest mid-upper level flow with embedded short wave
troughs/convective complexes traverse the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night through Wednesday. With low level south to
southwest gradient flow behind exiting high pressure feeding
increasing warmth and moisture back into the area, rounds of
showers and thunderstorms become possible Tuesday night, and
then remain so until a deep enough short wave trough pushes a
cold front through the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

High pressure sails by to the north of the area Thursday night,
and then gives way to low level return flow beneath building
heights, as the ridge expands back over the area, to bring a
dry end to the week.

Central guidance reflects the return of modest heat Tuesday and
Wednesday, interrupted Thursday before returning amid the
building heights to end the week. Lowlands forecast highs are
lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s, still a little
above normal for Thursday, then up to the mid 90s for Friday and
Saturday. Afternoon dew points are forecast to be down around
60 on Tuesday, and then mainly in the mid to upper 60s for the
balance of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 724 PM Saturday...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the period at
most sites, with the exception of IFR/LIFR conditions under
dense fog at EKN from 09-12Z. Otherwise, light southwest winds
become calm tonight into early Sunday morning. Winds become
gusty by mid morning as pressure gradient tightens up ahead of
an approaching cold front. Cold front arrives Sunday night,
exiting the eastern mountains by 12Z Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Afternoon thunderstorms may or may not
effect TAF sites in the mountains this afternoon. Fog may or may
not develop at KEKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 06/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in fog overnight Monday night into early Tuesday
morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ