-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
284
FXUS61 KRNK 190701
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
301 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Expect a few lingering showers and thunderstorms today for the
mountains, otherwise cool high pressure will build in from the
east. High pressure will keep our area mostly dry Monday through
Wednesday. A frontal system approaches late in the week to bring
the next chance for rain. After cooler weather today,
temperatures will be warm for the rest of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1) Cool and drier today, with a low chance for showers/storms in
the mountains this afternoon.

2) Sun may make an appearance, but expect more clouds and fog
tonight into Monday morning.

A wedge of high pressure with NE/E winds was forming already
this morning as a frontal boundary and associated showers
continue to drift south. This set up was resulting in low
stratus and fog this morning and will keep us cloudy and cooler
for the most part, with a few breaks of sunshine possible. CAMs
are still indicating a few showers/storms developing late this
afternoon and into the evening on the northern periphery of the
high...closer to higher theta-e values and residual short wave
energy. Convection looks possible across SE WV with perhaps a
few sprinkles/light showers blooming along the ridges of VA and
NC as well before dying after dark. Again rain may be brief but
moderate to heavy, and may lead to urban and small stream
flooding.

NE-to-SW oriented ridging in the mid and upper levels will
build in tonight into Monday, and should help to break down the
wedge of high pressure. Early in the morning however, still
expecting the wedge to be strong with more stratus/fog and warm
lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Confidence in the near term is high but lower for chances for
rain this afternoon/evening.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 205 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Mainly dry through the period.

2) Warmer than normal temperatures.

Surface high pressure with ridging aloft will bring drier
weather to the region Monday and Tuesday. Low level flow will
remain out of the southeast Monday, which will keep low clouds
in the area for much of the day. Uniform temperatures expected,
ranging in the 70s. Flow becomes southerly on Tuesday and with
less cloud cover, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to
lower 80s across the mountains and low to mid 80s in the
foothill and piedmont. A cold front will approach the region
Wednesday. With increasing southerly flow and abundant sunshine,
temperatures will warm into the 80s
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1) Unsettled weather pattern evolves during the later half of
the week.

A cold front is expected to track over the region Thursday and
stall across the area Thursday night into Friday. This stalled
boundary will increase the chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday. A wave of low pressure will then move
along this boundary, bringing more storms Friday. Showers are
expected to move out of the area Friday night with high pressure
building in over the region next weekend.

Warmer than normal temperatures expected Thursday, then near
normal going into next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Some clouds in the 4 to 10 kft range were noted across northern
NC close to a surface boundary. Farther north, a wedge of high
pressure and easterly winds were already becoming entrenched and
supporting LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings with some areas of dense fog
near the Blue Ridge. The low cloud base will obscure the ridges
through 14Z before clouds begin to lift and scatter. Mountain
-SHRA/isolated -TSRA look possible for mainly BLF and LWB after
 19Z until about 20/01Z.

Another night of LIFR/IFR stratus and fog in wedge conditions
are expected Monday morning.

Generally expect light easterly flow with a variable component
at times.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Ceilings and visibilities should return to VFR mid morning
Monday for much of the area, although northeast wind off the
Atlantic are still supportive of some VFR/MVFR cloudiness east
of the mountains. A better opportunity for VFR is expected
Tuesday into Wednesday. Thursday expect a chance for showers and
thunderstorms as a front nears.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH